Leadership From G20 Critically Important Right Now (PERSPECTIVE)

By Bill Gates

Leadership from the G20 is critically important right now. The global economic situation is as fragile as it has been at any time in the past 50 years. As leaders of the G20, you face a difficult challenge: How do you resolve the immediate crisis while continuing to make smart investments in long-term growth and improved living conditions?

During my lifetime, innovations in business, science, and technology have energized the global market economy in unprecedented ways. The world economy is 500 percent bigger than in 1960. Whole groups of countries that had been at the margins have become key drivers of growth. Their success is widely viewed as a miracle.

This progress has benefited everyone, not just the richest. You can see progress in the rising Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of many countries around the world. You can also see it in falling poverty rates and other quality-of-life indicators captured in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), established by world leaders in 2000 and agreed to by all G20 nations.

In the past 50 years, a billion people were saved from starvation by advances in agriculture. Health has improved in stunning ways, thanks to innovations like vaccines. In 1960, 20 million children under the age of 5 died. In 2010, fewer than 8 million children under 5 died. The world population more than doubled during this time, which means the rate of death has been cut by over 80 percent. Aid generosity has played an important role in these successes.

Despite the current economic crisis, I am optimistic that we can build on the generosity and innovations that worked in the past. The group of countries able to contribute resources to development is larger than ever before. The number of people who can spur innovations is much greater than in the past. For these reasons, I am convinced we can create a new era in development.

In this report I talk about the long-term investments and partnerships I believe will keep us on the path of economic growth and increasing equity.

I begin the report by describing the paramount importance of innovation. Key innovations like new seeds and vaccines—and new ways to deliver them to the poorest—can multiply the impact of the resources we’re already devoting to development. We’ve made a big difference, but we can improve the basic tools of development by making them cheaper, easier to use, and more efficient—or by inventing wholly new tools.

One of the newest resources for development—and potentially one of the most transformative—is rapidly growing countries’ capacity for innovation. Countries like Brazil, China, India, and Mexico are in a great position to work closely with poor countries because they have recent experience in reducing poverty, as well as enormous technical capabilities. This unique combination gives them both the insights and the skills to create breakthrough tools for development. I am particularly excited about the possibility of "triangular partnerships" among rapidly growing countries, traditional donors, and poor countries, because they exploit the comparative advantages of many different countries.

Ultimately, developing countries’ domestic resources will be the largest source of funds for development. To maximize the impact of these resources, poor countries must raise more revenue; spend it on priorities like agriculture and health, which many have committed to do; and, following the lead of G20 countries that pioneered impact evaluation, measure the cost-effectiveness of their programs. One important way G20 countries can help poor countries raise more revenue is by passing legally binding transparency requirements for mining and oil companies listed on their stock exchanges, to ensure that natural resources are well-managed.

Meanwhile, traditional donors must take steps to meet their aid commitments and spend their aid strategically. If the countries that have made promises stick to them, it will generate an additional $80 billion annually starting in 2015. Over the years, Official Development Assistance (ODA) has had a huge impact, and it will continue to play a pivotal role in development, alongside all the new resources I write about. Well-designed aid reduces poverty right now, and accelerates poor countries’ progress toward the moment when they will no longer need it. There’s a lot of pressure on aid budgets given economic conditions, but aid is a very small part of government expenditures. The world will not balance its books by cutting back on aid, but it will do irreparable damage to global stability, to the growth potential of the global economy, and to the livelihoods of millions of the poorest people. In the report, I include some tax proposals G20 countries should consider that could help them meet their aid commitments and eventually expand them.

Finally, I talk about ways to get the private sector much more involved in development. As a businessman, I believe the free market fuels growth. Unfortunately, the market often fails to address the needs of the poorest, but there are relatively simple things we can do to encourage private investment in development. For example, G20 countries could facilitate an infrastructure fund—with sovereign wealth funds as the backbone—that generates both development impact and financial returns. I also make recommendations about tapping into the goodwill of diaspora communities by issuing bonds, lowering the cost of remittances, and creating pull mechanisms to incentivize private investments in development.

When you put all this together, I believe you begin to get a picture of why the G20 Summit is such an important place to be having a conversation about development. We can cast aside our old categories of aid, as distinct from private investment, as distinct from domestic spending. The G20 countries can pull all these levers at once, giving the world a more comprehensive and cooperative approach to improving the lives of the poor than we’ve ever had before.

The above is the Introduction to a report presented to world leaders at the G20 summit in Cannes, France, Bill Gates outlined recommendations to encourage innovation and new partnerships that increase the value and delivery of development aid. Click here for the full presentation.

Interpol and 13 nations come together to save tigers (REPORT)

(PHOTO: SustainabilityNinja) (HN, 11/3/11) – This week in Hanoi, Vietnam at their 80^th General Assembly, Interpol the world’s largest international police organization with 190 member countries launched a campaign to help save the world's last wild tigers in the 13 Asian countries where they still exist.  Conservationists praised the move.

"Having a force like Interpol working on this will give the effort a great boost," Mike Baltzer, head of WWF's Tigers Alive Initiative, said Thursday, a day after the campaign was unveiled.

The project, called “Project Predators” will link international wildlife officials with customs and law enforcement officers in the 13 nations to help stem poaching and smuggling of tiger parts for use in expensive traditional medicines.  

The initiative will provide capacity building to law enforcement agencies to combat tiger crimes, strengthen their ability to work with wildlife officials using advanced, intelligence-led methods of investigation and will also encourage countries to establish and resource National Tiger Crime Task Forces.

Poaching and habitat fragmentation have caused Asia's wild tiger population to decline from about 100,000 in 1900 to fewer than 3,500 today, according to Interpol.

Their habitat spans China, Russia, Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. Tigers do not live in the wild on other continents.  In November 2010, leaders from the 13 countries pledged to double the world's wild tiger population by 2022.

The Interpol project "will reduce trafficking in tiger parts, with the add-on effect of reducing other wildlife crime in Asia," Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank and founder of the Global Tiger Initiative that will oversee the project, told Interpol delegates in a video address.

The project calls for connecting Asian law enforcement and customs officers with wildlife officials from the U.S., Britain, the World Bank and the Smithsonian Institution.

---HUMNEWS, agencies

Social Media Stirs Ghanaians to Action over Discrimination (REPORT)

By Karen Attiah

(HN, November 2, 2011) - African governments are not the only ones to fear the combination of disgruntled masses and social media. Businesses too are at the mercy of Africans wielding mobile phones, Facebook and Twitter.

In the west African nation of Ghana, where five mobile networks have generated a cell phone penetration rate of 80.5 percent, hand-held devices are all the rage. And many people in this country of almost 25 million people have social media access on their mobile devices.

Take Elizabeth Okoro. She took to Facebook to recount being discriminated against at a restaurant named Atlantic Lobster and Dolphin Ltd.  in the Osu part of the bustling capital, Accra.

In a Facebook post dated Saturday, Okoro recalled asking the Italian owner of the restaurant if she, along with her Spanish and Japanese dining companions, could become members of the restaurant’s “Seafood Lovers” Club.

According to Okoro, restaurant management responded with a laugh, saying the club was for white people only. “I was completely taken aback and rendered speechless,” Okoro says in her Facebook post.

Okoro was not speechless for long.

The Facebook group that she created on Saturday - “White’s Only Club in Gh..Pls Boycott Atlantic Lobster and Dolphin Ltd” - has ballooned to over 1,420 members. Even a local radio station, X-FM, invited Okoro on the air to speak about her experiences.

The Ghanaian government has taken notice. On Tuesday, Joy FM reported that Ghana’s tourism ministry has shut down Atlantic Lobster, as a result of a lack of compliance with operation codes.

Elizabeth’s plight seems to have resonated with many Ghanaians on social media.

On both Twitter and Facebook, they are now speaking out about their experiences of discrimination at the hands of foreign-owned businesses, particularly in Accra.

And, as more and more expatriates are moving to Accra to take advantage of investment opportunities, political stability and easy proximity to palm-fringed beaches, many Ghanaians are sharing experiences of being refused service in favor of expats at clubs, bars, restaurants, and bakeries. “Ghana should not accept this from any foreign investor”- said one Facebook commenter named Yehowa Ji Mi Kwelor.

“That’s Ghana for you” is a popular expression of defeated resignation, and is used to explain everything from corruption to power rationing to discrimination.

But now with virtually unlimited access to social media platforms, young Ghanaians are pledging to no longer keep quiet about injustices Perhaps older generations of Ghanaians would have kept silent about such treatment.

But as Okoro posted on her Facebook wall on Tuesday, “Today marks the birth of a new generation. A new generation of Ghanaians who will not only be heard but will scream out against discrimination. A new generation who will not turn a blind eye against injustice. We have shed the cloak of inaction and out on a super hero cloak of determination. I am proud to be member of this generation. “

It may come as no surprise that the government acted so promptly. According to the World Bank, the tourism industry is now the third highest foreign exchange earner in Ghana, with average earnings of over $400 million per year.

From the looks of things, Okoro’s call for action on Facebook has sent echoes far and wide.

Attiah is a Ghanaian-American master's student at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. She holds research interests in broadcast media and citizen participation in Africa.

UNESCO Votes To Admit Palestine. What’s Next? (PERSPECTIVE)

By Timothy E. Wirth 

(HN, November 1, 2011) - As the eyes of the world are focused on the Palestinian statehood bid at the United Nations in New York, another troubling chapter is unfolding in Paris. The United States is on the brink of abandoning its decades-long leadership in several international organizations – a process that will fundamentally undermine American national security and economic interests.

At issue are two laws from the early 1990s that prohibit the United States from providing financial contributions to any United Nations entity that admits Palestine as a member. The laws are strict: if Palestine is admitted to a UN agency, the United States must stop paying its membership dues. The restrictions provide no authority for the president to waive these prohibitions even if it is in the national interest to do so.

With a clear majority of countries around the world prepared to back Palestinian ambitions at the United Nations, the United States is poised to lose its leverage over several UN bodies that advance American interests and promote our ideals.

The damage to Americans of a forced withdrawal would not stop there. The first UN agency from which the United States could be pushed out is UNESCO, which admitted Palestine as a member today. To Americans, UNESCO is best known for designating World Heritage Sites. It also leads global efforts to bring clean water to the poor, promotes educational and curriculum building in the developing world, and manages a tsunami early warning system in the Pacific, among other important tasks. This critical work would be jeopardized if UNESCO’s top funder stops paying its bills.

The immediate damage would not be limited to UNESCO. The moment Palestine is admitted to UNESCO it will also clear the path for its entry to the World Intellectual Property Organization. This is a lesser known UN agency that serves American businesses and brands by setting global standards for copyrights and adjudicating cross border patent disputes.  In the last year alone, dozens of major American companies brought cases before WIPO — the American Automobile Association, Apple, The North Face, Costco and Facebook to name just a few.  If Palestine joins WIPO, the United States will have to pull out, limiting its ability to steer policies in ways that advance American economic interests and create jobs here at home.

The damage would not stop there. The membership of UN agencies like the International Civil Aviation Organization, International Postal Union, and the International Telecommunications Union are also likely to admit Palestine.  Each of these agencies performs tasks that American lawmakers probably take for granted. Thanks to the Universal Postal Union, the Chinese will deliver a package with American postage stamps on it and vice versa. Air traffic controllers in Dubai and Dulles speak the same language because of the International Civil Aviation Organization.  Alas, under the 1990s laws, the USA will lose its voice at those organizations once they admit Palestine. Without the United States as a voting participant, perhaps French supplants English as common language of international aviation?

Next on the list of agencies from which the USA would be forced to withdraw is the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Health Organization. In recent years the IAEA has been a critical part of American attempts to constrain the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. In 2006, the Bush administration successfully lobbied other members of the IAEA executive board to refer Iran’s nuclear program to the Security Council for sanctions. Should the United States stop paying membership dues to the IAEA–which it could be forced to do under current legislation if Palestine is admitted as a member — the United States would give up our vote on the executive board. It would literally lose a seat at the table during the next nuclear crisis.

The WHO works closely with the United States–particularly the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — to keep infectious diseases like the Avian Flu from reaching our shores. If the Palestinians are admitted to the WHO, that cooperation would have to stop under the current law.

Should the U.S. pull out of these organizations; it is not as if these organizations would stop functioning altogether. Rather, an agency like IAEA may have to reduce the number of nuclear inspectors it deploys around the world. Other countries, maybe even America’s global rivals, will step into fill the leadership void left by the United States.

As long as these laws remain on the books, Congress is setting the stage for America’s waning influence over international affairs.  From businesses interests to non-governmental organizations who care about America’s influence at the UN, everyone must take a stand and urge Congress to give the President the flexible authority needed protect our national security and economic interests.

Wirth is President of the UN Foundation. Reprinted with permission.

Passing the Blame After the Thai Floods (REPORT)

By Wayne Hay in Asia 

(October 31, 2011) The people of Thailand are being let down by their leaders during the ongoing flood disaster. Much criticism is being directed at Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra for the government's handling of the crisis, but she cannot be held solely responsible.

Self-serving politicians around the flood-affected provinces must also stand up and shoulder their fair share of the blame for allowing politics to make an unwelcome entry into a human and economic tragedy.

Not only has the disaster been exacerbated by outrageous contradictory and often confusing statements by local and national elected officials, but the flow of water from north to south has been hindered by politics, as leaders try to protect their patch at the expense of national interest. Flood gates have remained closed when they should have been opened and vice versa.

It's a concern when the system means the prime minister has to negotiate with the governor of Bangkok before he will co-operate with the government's plans. That governor just happens to be a member of the opposition Democrat Party.

The government has resisted calls to declare a state of emergency for fear it could panic residents and scare off foreign investors and tourists. But what everyone needed was leadership and clear communication. Perhaps a state of emergency would have helped provide those things.

There needs to be change if the country is to avoid a repeat performance from people who have been elected to lead.

Originally published by Al Jazeera under Creative Commons Licensing

Floods in Central America Cause Death, Displacement, Chaos

(PHOTO: UNISDR)(HN, October 29, 2011) – Ten days of heavy rains in Central America have caused the deaths of an estimated 123 persons; forced tens of thousands from their homes and destroyed crops, livelihoods and infrastructure in El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.

In El Salvador, 35 persons are reported dead and some 55,000 persons were evacuated from their homes and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has begun to deliver assistance and manage shelters in the flood zone.  As part of the UN Flash Appeal for El Salvador, IOM is appealing for US$709,522, which includes US$ 288,997 from the CERF.

With funds from the UN's Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), in El Salvador IOM will support the management of 42 temporary shelters currently housing 1,895 persons; that the shelters comply with safety and hygiene standards; provide basic materials to improve the shelters; and distribute non-food emergency items amongst most affected families. 

"This week, all assessments were finished, and so with that concrete information in hand we can now begin the delivery of relief supplies and the rehabilitation of shelters", explains Jorge Sagastume, IOM Shelter and Emergency Coordinator in El Salvador, where the need is focused on urgent shelters and return kits for the families to rebuild their damaged homes.

"The rains have stopped, but the emergency continues," said Sagastume, head of the IOM eight-person assessment team which this week visited the departments of Ahuachapán, Sonsonate, La Libertad, Usulután, La Paz y San Miguel.

"Hundreds of persons have left the shelters, but have returned to communities that are still suffering from lack of clean water, proper hygiene, and bacterial infections, especially amongst the children," added Sagastume.

In Guatemala, where 39 people are reported dead and more than 500,000 have been affected, IOM is requesting US$ 442,417 from the CERF to repair and upgrade basic living and sanitary conditions in temporary shelters and provide non-food emergency assistance to some 2,000 families in the departments of Santa Rosa, Escuintla, Retalhuleu, Quetzaltenango, Jutiapa y San Marcos.

IOM's Sebastian Berkovich headed the three-person IOM team that this week visited seriously affected communities in the southern department of Santa Rosa.  "We had relentless rains for more than a week; non-stop rain for more than seven days.  During our trip to Santa Rosa we saw chunks of highway that had been washed away by the rains and entire communities isolated on the other side of the road," recounted Berkovich.  

Marta Zamora, Nursing Assistant at the village of La Bomba health centre, told IOM, "The water has receded a bit, but access to the clinic is still very difficult.  Fortunately one of our colleagues was able to go the nearest town and fetch medicine, so we have supplies.  We're treating children with upper respiratory infections and many people with fungal infections." 

At the peak of the rains and floods, the Nicaragua Government reported that 10,000 persons had been evacuated to emergency shelters.  Although some 3,000 have returned home, IOM Nicaragua is working with its partners to rebuild and rehabilitate existing shelters, strengthen the capacity of shelter managers, distribute non-food items (house cleaning implements, kitchen kits, comfort kits, and hygiene kits) to the estimated 7,000 persons who remain homeless and in shelters.  As part of the UN Flash Appeal, IOM Nicaragua is appealing for US$ 637,374.

This week, the IOM Nicaragua team visited the most affected departments of Estelí, Nueva Segovia, Madriz, Leon and Chinandega.  The team worked hand-in-hand with IOM's local staff in Chinandega and Estelí, as well as with authorities and the NGO Shelter Box to assess the extent of damage to the homes, as well as the living conditions of those who took refuge in official shelters.

IOM Officer Daizen Oda reported heard from people whose homes completely collapsed or were washed away; others lamented that their home was missing the roof or a wall.

"Some shelters are filled with more than 200 people, including women and children.  They told us that they had lost most of their belongings.  IOM, working with its many partners, is ready to begin distributing non-food items to this population the moment funds become available," said Oda.

A woman from Villanueva, in the department of Chinandega, who was forced to seek refuge in a school told IOM: "It is not easy to live in a school with so many other people and with students coming in every day for their classes." 

As the lead agency in charge of shelter, IOM Nicaragua will work with its partners to rebuild or rehabilitate existing shelters, strengthen the capacity of shelter managers, distribute non-food items (house cleaning implements, kitchen kits, comfort kits, and hygiene kits) to families in shelters; provide protection and psychosocial support to some 4,000 children and adolescents in shelters, and support the prevention of gender-based violence in shelters in Managua.  

To carry out these activities in Nicaragua, and as part of the UN Flash Appeal, IOM is appealing for US$ 637,374.  The approval of the UN's Flash Appeal for Nicaragua is expected today.

IOM is working with governments in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua and Honduras, as well as national and international partners, and is appealing for US$ 2,783,926 to provide emergency assistance to the affected communities.

In the past 40 years, the region has endured a multitude of natural disasters that have killed some 50,000 people and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.

--HUMNEWS staff, IOM

Italy: State of Emergency Due to Flash Floods and Mudslides (NEWS BRIEF)

(PHOTO: DW-WORLD.DE)(HN, October 28, 2011) Seven people have been reported dead an others are still missing after heavy rains caused severe flooding in northern Italy, officials said Friday.

Flash floods and mudslides triggered by heavy rains earlier this week barreled through picturesque towns along the northwest coast, burying streets under mud, damaging homes, stores, churches and overturning vehicles.

Among hard-hit towns are Monterosso and Vernazza, along the Cinque Terre region on Italy's northwest coast.

The Italian Council of Ministers declared a state of emergency in the flood region, which means 65 million euros ($91 million) will be put aside to deal with the disaster, the Corriere della Sera newspaper reported.

Heavy rains continued to fall Thursday night in Milan and other spots across the southern European nation, according to the Servizio Meteorologico, Italy's official weather agency. The agency gave an alert about intense, widespread rainfall in the regions of Calabria and Basilicata in southern Italy, as well as the eastern part of Sicily.

--- HUMNews Staff

World Population Hits Seven Billion (NEWS BRIEF)

Balogun market in the Central Business District of Lagos, Nigeria. By 2015 Lagos will become the most populous city in Africa, with some 17 million people. ©UNFPA/Akintunde Akinleye(HN, UPDATED OCTOBER 27, 2011) - The world population is projected to reach seven billion at the end of October.

However impressive, the milestone is being greeted with concern as vast inequalities remain - especially in poor, developing countries - and wealthy countries have been lagging behind on meeting commitments such as funding of family planning services in Africa and elsewhere.

The milestone reveals that almost half of the world population is 25 years old and younger and that some countries have 60 percent of people that are 18 and under.

The UN says the planet's response will determine whether the global population enjoys a healthy, sustainable and prosperous future or one that is marked by inequalities, environmental decline and economic setbacks.

The findings were published in The State of World Population 2011 report, published today by UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund.

“With planning and the right investments in people now—to empower them to make choices that are not only good for themselves, but also for our global commons—our world of 7 billion can have thriving sustainable cities, productive labour forces that fuel economies, and youth populations that contribute to the well-being of their societies,” says UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin in the foreword of the report, entitled People and Possibilities in a World of 7 Billion.

The record population size can be viewed in many ways as a success for humanity because it means that people are living longer and more of our children are surviving worldwide, the report shows. But not everyone has benefited from this achievement or the higher quality of life that this implies. Great disparities exist among and within countries. Disparities in rights and opportunities also exist between men and women, girls and boys. Charting a path now to development that promotes equality, rather than exacerbates or reinforces inequalities, is more important than ever.

The 7 billion milestone “is a challenge, an opportunity and a call to action,” said Osotimehin at the report’s launch in London. The report is also being launched in more than 100 other cities worldwide.

UNFPA says that too many people don't have the means to control their fertility.

"We must ensure that reproductive health services and family planning are better funded and that they become available to everyone who wants them," said Alanna Armitage, director of the UNFPA office in Geneva.

Of the world’s 7 billion, 1.8 billion are young people between the ages of 10 and 24, Osotimehin, a former minister of health in Nigeria, noted.

“Young people hold the key to the future, with the potential to transform the global political landscape and to propel economies through their creativity and capacities for innovation. But the opportunity to realize youth’s great potential must be seized now,” Osotimehin said. “We should be investing in the health and education of our youth. This would yield enormous returns in economic growth and development for generations to come.”

Osotimehin echoed his colleague's remarks about a lack of access to family planning - a recourse some governments in the developed world have trouble funding.

He said: "Consider that there are 215 million women of childbearing age in developing countries who lack access to voluntary family planning. There are millions of adolescent girls and boys in the developing world who have too little access to sexuality education and information about how to prevent pregnancies or protect themselves from HIV. In pockets of the world where women’s status is low, infant and child survival are also low. And we must tear down economic, legal and social barriers, to put women and men and boys and girls on an equal footing in all spheres of life.”

Sandeep Prasad, executive director of Action Canada for Population and Development, said Canada and other developed nations have unmet commitments..

"There are 250 million women who want family planning globally and they're not getting it," he said. "This unmet need for contraception will grow by 40 per cent by 2050 with the largest generation of young people ever entering their reproductive years."

While people under 25 years old make up close to half of the world's population, life expectancy is climbing. The global average life expectancy has climbed to 68 by the end of the last decade. Infant mortality, meanwhile, has plunged from about 133 deaths in 1,000 births in the 1950s to 46 per 1,000 in the period from 2005 to 2010, the report says.

Women's fertility, meanwhile, has dropped.

The State of World Population 2011 is mainly a report from the field, where demographers, policymakers, governments, civil society and individuals are grappling with population trends ranging from ageing to rapidly rising numbers of young people, from high population growth rates to shrinking populations, and from high rates of urbanization to rising international migration. The countries featured in this report are China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Finland, India, Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

- HUMNEWS staff, UNFPA

Pakistan: Reversing the Lens (PERSPECTIVE)

By By Conn Hallinan

Conn Hallinan(October 26, 2011) Since the United States invaded Afghanistan in October 2001, Pakistan has lost more than 35,000 people, the vast bulk of them civilians. While the U.S. has had slightly over 1800 soldiers killed in the past 10 years, Pakistan has lost over 5,000 soldiers and police. The number of suicide bombings in Pakistan has gone from one before 2001, to more than 335 since.

“Terrorism,” as Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari says, “is not a statistic for us.”

For most Americans, Pakistan is a two-faced “ally” playing a double game in Central Asia even as it siphons off tens of billions of dollars in aid. For Pakistanis, the spillover from the Afghan war has cost Islamabad approximately of $100 billion. And this in a country with a yearly GDP of around $175 billion and whose resources have been deeply strained by two years of catastrophic flooding.

Washington complains that its $20.7 billion in aid over the past nine years has bought it very little in the way of loyalty from Islamabad, while Pakistan points out that U.S. aid makes up less than 0.3 percent of Pakistan’s yearly GDP.

Both countries’ opinions of one another are almost mirror images. According to a U.S. poll, 74 percent of Americans do not consider Pakistan to be an ally, while the Pew Research Center found that six in 10 Pakistanis consider the Americans an “enemy” and only 12 percent have a favorable view of the United States.

This mutual distrust in part results from mistakes and misjudgments by both countries that date back to the 1979-89 Russian occupation of Afghanistan. But at its heart is an American strategy that not only runs counter to Pakistan’s interests, but will make ending the war in Afghanistan a far more painful procedure than need be.

Pakistani Interests

If Pakistan is a victim in the long-running war, it is not entirely an innocent one. Pakistan, along with the United States, was an ally of the anti-Communist, right-wing mujahideen during the 1980s Afghan war.

Pakistan’s interest in Afghanistan has always been multi-faceted. Islamabad is deeply worried that its traditional enemy, India, will gain a foothold in Afghanistan, thereby essentially surrounding Pakistan. This is not exactly paranoid, as Pakistan has fought—and lost—three wars with India, and tensions between the two still remain high.

Over the past six years, India has conducted 10 major military exercises along the Pakistani border. The latest—Viajyee Bhava (Be Victorious)—involved 20,000 troops. India has the world’s fourth largest army, Pakistan the 15^th.

By aligning itself with Washington during its Cold War competition with the Soviets in Afghanistan, Islamabad had the inside track to buy high-performance American military hardware to help it offset India’s numerical superiority. Indeed, it did manage to purchase some F-16s fighter-bombers.

But when Pakistan allied itself with the Taliban, India aligned itself with the Northern Alliance, composed of Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras who opposed the Pashtun-dominated Taliban. Pashtuns are a plurality in Afghanistan’s complex mix of ethnicities, and traditionally they dominated the Kabul government.

Islamabad has always been deeply concerned about the Pashtuns, because a long-time fear of Islamabad is that Pakistani Pashtuns could ally themselves to Afghani Pashtuns and form a breakaway country that would fragment Pakistan.

From Islamabad’s point of view, the American demand that it corral the Taliban and the Haqqani Group that operate from mountainous Northwest Frontier and Federally Administrated Tribal Areas of Pakistan could stir up Pashtun nationalism. In any case, the task would be beyond the capabilities of the Pakistan military. In 2009, the Pakistani Army used two full divisions just to reclaim the Swat Valley from local militants, a battle that cost billions of dollars, generated two million refugees, and inflicted heavy casualties.

Diverging Objectives

Current U.S. strategy has exacerbated Pakistan’s problem by putting the Northern Alliance in power, excluding the Pashtuns from any meaningful participation, and targeting the ethnic group’s heartland in southern and eastern Afghanistan. President Hamid Karzai is a Pashtun, but he is little more than window dressing in a government dominated by other ethnic groups. According to Zahid Hussain, author of a book on Islamic militants, this has turned the war into a “Pashtun war” and has meant that “the Pashtuns in Pakistan would become…strongly allied with both al Qaeda and the Taliban.”

The United States has also remained silent while India moved aggressively into Afghanistan. On October 4, Kabul and New Delhi inked a “strategic partnership” that, according to The New York Times, “paves the way for India to train and equip Afghan security forces.” The idea of India training Afghan troops is the equivalent of waving a red flag to see if the Pakistani bull will charge.

One pretext for the agreement was the recent assassination of Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the Afghan High Peace Council, killed by the Taliban under the direction of the Pakistani secret service, the ISI, according to Karzai government claims. But evidence linking the Taliban or Pakistan to the hit is not persuasive, and the Taliban and Haqqani Group—never shy about taking the credit for killing people—say they had nothing to do with it.

Pakistan’s ISI certainly maintains a relationship with the Afghan-based Taliban and the Haqqani Group, but former Joint Chiefs of Staff head, Admiral Mike Mullen’s charge that the latter are a “veritable arm” of Pakistan’s ISI is simply false. The Haqqanis come from the powerful Zadran tribe based in Paktia and Khost provinces in Afghanistan and North Waziristan in Pakistan’s Tribal Area.

When their interests coincide, the Haqqanis find common ground with Islamabad, but the idea that Pakistan can get anyone in that region to jump to attention reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the deeply engrained cultural and ethnic currents that have successfully rebuffed outsiders for thousands of years. And in the border region, the Pakistan Army is as much an outsider as is NATO.

Dealing with the Mess

There is a way out of this morass, but it will require a very different strategy than the one the United States is currently following, and one far more attuned to the lens through which most Pakistanis view the war in Afghanistan.

The United States and its allies must first stand down their military offensive—including the drone attacks—against the Taliban and Haqqani Group, and negotiate a ceasefire. Then the United States must open immediate talks with the various insurgency groups and declare a plan for the withdrawal of all foreign troops. The Taliban—the Haqqanis say they will follow the organization’s lead—have indicated that they will no longer insist on a withdrawal of troops before opening talks, but they do want a timetable. Any government in Kabul that emerges from such negotiations must reflect the ethnic make-up of the country.

Pakistan’s concerns over Indian influence must also be addressed, including the dangerous issue of Kashmir. President Obama ran on a platform that called for dealing with Kashmir, but he subsequently dropped it at the insistence of New Delhi.

Pakistan and the United States may have profoundly different views of one another, but on at least one issue they agree: slightly over 90 percent of Pakistanis would like U.S. troops to go home, and 62 percent of Americans want an immediate cut in U.S. forces. Common ground in this case seems to be based on a strong dose of common sense.

- Conn Hallinan is a Foreign Policy In Focus columnist. 

- Originally published by Institute for Policy Studies is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.

Two African Candidates Shortlisted For International Criminal Court (NEWS BRIEF)

Outgoing ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo. Credit: ICC(HN, October 25, 2011) - Two candidates from the African continent are among four shortlisted to head the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague.

The pair come from Tanzania and Gambia, and, along with a Briton and Canadian, have been shortlisted to replace the tough-talking ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo of Argentina, whose term ends next year.

They are: Mohamed Chande Othman, Tanzania’s Chief Justice and Fatou Bensouda of Gambia - currently the ICC's deputy prosecutor.

Also in he running are Andrew Cayley, a British national and the International Co-Prosecutor of the Khmer Rouge Tribunal in Cambodia. Rounding out the list is Robert Petit, a war crimes counsel in Canada's Department of Justice.

The four were short listed by the selection committee of the Assembly of States Parties, which oversees the court. The committee, which had been set up by the Assembly at its ninth session in December 2010, was composed of five members representing each of the regional groups,

The process comes at a time when an increasing number of the ICC's files originate from Africa - including Kenya, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic.

Bensouda was appointed the ICC's deputy prosecutor in September 2004 and previously worked as a legal adviser and trial attorney at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda in Arusha, Tanzania, reported The Standard Newspaper of Kenya.

"She has long been regarded as the favourite to take over from Moreno-Ocampo, particularly at a time when the ICC's cases are largely focused on Africa," the paper said.

Othman was appointed Tanzania's chief justice in December 2010, after being elevated by President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete from judge in the High court of Tanzania and the court of appeal for seven years. He is a reputed human rights expert.

Canada's Petit also has impressive international credentials. From 2006 to 2009, he was the International Co-Prosecutor for the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia, which is aiming to try Khmer Rouge leaders for violations of international criminal law in Cambodia between 1975 and 1979. He has also served as a Legal Officer in the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, Regional Legal Advisor for the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo, a Prosecutor for the Serious Crimes Unit of the United Nations Mission of Support to East Timor, and a Senior Trial Attorney for the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

- HUMNEWS staff, agencies

Hurricane Rina Heading Towards Mexico As Many Parts of Central America Suffer From Severe Flooding (NEWS BRIEF)

(graphic courtesy of National Weather Service) (HN, October 25, 2011) Hurricane Rina, which spent days nagging the coastline of Honduras as a disorganized depression, has now coalesced into a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, could barrel into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan peninsula by the end of the week, according to the US National Hurricane Center.

The storm was packing sustained winds of 40 miles (65 kilometers) per hour and was tracking to the northwest at six miles per hour.

"Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours," and Rina could unleash up to five inches (12.5 centimeters) of rain in some areas, the Miami-based NHC said in a bulletin.

Rina's center was about 135 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, on the Nicaragua-Honduras border, and was predicted to pass north of the Honduran coast.

Several nations in Central America have only just begun to dig out from recent torrential rains which triggered deadly flooding and landslides, swamped huge swathes of farmland and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

The number of fatalities across the region topped 100, including 36 deaths in Guatemala, 34 in El Salvador and 18 in Honduras, from non-stop downpours that have affected hundreds of thousands of people, destroyed crops, livelihoods and infrastructure. 

Throughout the region, some 1.2 million people have been affected, said the UN.

According to the Salvadoran Ministry of Natural Resources, almost 60 inches (150 centimetres) of rain have fallen in the past 10 days.  The cumulative record for Hurricane Mitch, which in 1998 killed 11,000 people in the region, was 34 inches (86 centimetres).

The region has endured a multitude of natural disasters, in the past 4 decades, that have killed some 50,000 people and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.

- HUMNews Staff 

Indochina: Floods Impacting Millions, Crops Damaged (BRIEF, PHOTOS)

A Cambodian boy rides his motorcycle through flood waters. CREDIT: WFP Cambodia/Polly Egerton(HN, October 24, 2011) - A wide swath of Indochina is being hit by historic floods. An area the size of Spain is said to be under water, with tens of thousands of hectares of rice paddies and dozens of factories damaged.

Over the weekend, flood waters began to submerge streets in the Thai capital of Bangkok.

Laos and Cambodia have also been hit by widespread flooding.

In Cambodia, aid agencies are reporting severe flash floods and rising water levels in 17 out of 24 provinces affecting more than 1.2 million people. The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) is launching an immediate response operation to address the food requirements of over 12,000 families - or 60,000 people. 

WFP is by providing a monthly 50kg of rice per household in Cambodia, said spokesperson Gaelle Sevenier.

Impoverished Laos, which is also flood-prone, is reported to have had almost eight percent of its rice farmland damaged. The UN says 12 out 17 provinces have been affected by severe flooding caused by tropical storm Haima and Nock-Ten this year.

At a press briefing in Geneva on Friday, David Singh from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) said the floods in South East Asia are threatening 8 million people.

Prokeab village in Kampong Thom province shows the overwhelming impact of flood waters on people's lives and livelihoods. Credit: WFPHe said the floods underline shortcomings in disaster risk reduction, with the highest concern being many children drowning because they can't swim (reportedly over 200 children in Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand out of an estimated total of 740 related deaths). There are also thousands of workers unemployed because of poorly located manufacturing plants. 

UNISDR wants the governments of the affected countries to open discussions with the private sector on what adjustments needed to be made in their land use and basic prevention measures when these events were now so predictable.

Across the region, the well-being of millions are be drastically affected by the loss of livelihoods, as manufacturing plants are forced to shut and agriculture struggles to recover.

Singh said that, over the long term, countries such as Thailand need a more comprehensive framework to manage disasters, especially floods. The main shortcoming right now is there are about eight institutions that deal with water. Most of the countries in the region have no comprehensive framework to deal with this catastrophe.

Their analysis have raised fears that the current flooding in Thailand may be a prelude to even worse flood catastrophes in the future. UNISDR believes that the worst is yet to come.

- HUMNEWS staff, UN

Powder in the Eyes in Algeria (PERSPECTIVE)

By Wided Khadraoui

Algerian newspapersThe endgame unfolding in Libya is having profound effects throughout North Africa and the Middle East. The revolution still rages on as Gaddafi’s relatives pour into Algeria, where the implications of the last battle in Sirte have profoundly impacted the political situation. Algeria and Morocco are the only states in North Africa where the leadership remains intact. Algeria has certainly felt the pressure of the revolutionary wave and has taken several measures to counter any challenge that might emerge from its conflict-weary nationals.

There are three main factors preventing Algeria from joining the Arab Spring. The first is a lack of support from the intellectual and academic elites of the nation, making protests like the ones called for this past September 17 irrelevant. This lack of support is tied to the second reason, which is the lack of an authentic substitute for the current government. Opposition parties in Algeria have all failed to present better political prospects. Finally, Algeria is essentially a diffuse “mafia state” with widespread corruption, bribery, and protection rackets. Algeria does not have one leader that can be targeted for removal, but rather an entire establishment that needs complete restructuring. The military junta that runs Algeria maintains its support by exploiting security threats in the region and offering token reforms in an attempt to quell protests.

The most recent of these reforms is the opening up of the country’s media. Algeria has 45 independent French and Arabic publications alongside four government-owned newspapers. There are currently five television channels in Algeria, all publicly owned and used solely for the regime’s propaganda. But on September 12, the government announced that it would relinquish its monopoly on the airwaves, which it has enjoyed since 1962.

Communication Minister Nacer Mehal, in an interview with the newspaperL’Expression on September 21, promised that such reforms were sincere, although it would take some time to implement them. However, the minister also warned would-be broadcasters of “excesses that might undermine [Algeria’s] unity and sovereignty.” A careful reading of the draft bill shows that additional limitations have been inserted under the guise of protecting national media. Despite somewhat liberalizing the audio-visual sector, the bill also proposes numerous restrictions on the freedom of association, once again under the guise of national safety.

The government’s timeworn refrain that restrictions and control are necessiary to protect Algerian nationals from instability and insecurity no longer holds water. It only reinforces societywide symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder resulting from the recent civil war, and severely limits socio-economic progress.

Censorship in Algeria

Censorship in Algeria has always been somewhat indirect. Insults to the president, an MP, a judge, or the army are usually prosecuted under defamation laws. It is not necessarily treated as sedition, but unfavorable media coverage can still result in prison terms or fines.

Journalists such as Mohammad Benchicou, for example, director of the newspaper Le Matin and author of a critical biography, Bouteflika: An Algerian Impostor, was sentenced to two years in prison in 2004 after the release of his book. Omar Belhouchet of the opposition El Watan has been under constant judicial attack since 2008, when he accused a supposed faith healer with close ties to the government of being a fraud. Despite the harassment, Algerian newspapers have survived constant government attempts to scrutinize and control.

Still, although Algerian journalists have generally had somewhat greater liberty to express their opinions compared to others in the region, many journalists essentially practice a form of self-censorship, avoiding certain sensitive topics altogether.

Powder in the Eyes

Meager “political reforms” to assuage public frustration have been slowly trickling out of Bouteflika’s cabinet since February. Mehal promised that consultations to open  the audio-visual sector would be initiated as early as this October. The minister has repeatedly declared that the latest draft reforms are not simply “de la poudre aux yeux,” an expression that literally means “powder in the eyes,” referring to appearances that are appealing but misleading.

Ending the government’s monopoly on broadcasting has been a long-standing demand of the opposition. The authenticity of the proposed reforms, however, is another story, especially considering the regime’s history of dealing in “powder.” Democratic reforms offered by an oligarchy, after all, are an oxymoron. Accordingly, the statement released on September 12 by the Algérie Presse Service (the state-run news agency) contained an ominous caveat: the liberalization of media outlets would be dependent on broadcasters’ willingness to show “respect for the Constitution and legislation [currently] in force.”

The shortcomings of these proposals are not lost on either the press or the opposition. An op-ed from El Watan stated it most concisely: “there is nothing new, or virtually nothing [in the draft bills]. … The President of the Republic and his ministers have failed to revolutionise Algerian legislation on political practice, the way that associations work, or media conduct.”

Constitutional Failings

The requirement that broadcasters show “respect for the Constitution” begs the question: which constitution will new players in the sector have to “respect” — the current one, or the one to be amended at the end of this month? Any revisions to current laws promised by the government have to be discussed and adopted by Parliament. To make the matter more complicated, the criteria for what allows particular laws to be passed and others dismissed are not clear, and the order in which reforms will be made is just as ambiguous.

In order for any reform to be feasible, the current constitution cannot continue to serve the purposes of the president and his cache of generals alone. It must clearly delineate powers, processes, and limitations, and just as importantly, it must be respected. Algeria cannot continue to put the cart in front of the horse; no reform proposed by the current regime can be viable without first eradicating the country’s political cronyism.

Algeria and the Arab Spring

Although the Arab Spring has not yet come to Algeria in full force, the country remains ripe for social unrest. Not only is poverty is widespread and unemployment high (especially among youth), but pervasive government corruption and deficient public services are persistent sources of significant popular dissatisfaction. And despite the “repeal” of the 1992 emergency laws in response to the major protests of January 2011, where two people were killed in clashes with security forces, the Algerian regime has continued to find ways to maintain the same level of control.

In an interview with Maison des journalistes, when asked about the reason for high levels of censorship in Algeria, exiled Algerian journalist Djamledine Benchenouf eloquently answered that “the leaders, who have their hands on the riches of the country…cannot afford to allow the emergence of a democratic system.” This inability to embrace the foundations of a democratic system makes it impossible for viable change to emerge under the current regime.

This is no less true elsewhere in the region. From Bahrain to Syria, Jordan to Saudi Arabia, authoritarian regimes across the Middle East resist any tangible change.

The push for democratic reform will not cease now that the initial passion of the Arab Spring is over. The seasonal nomenclature unrealistically restricted the movement to a specific time; in reality it is a continuous process. The Algerian government treats democratic reform as some kind of impossible brainteaser, when in reality all it requires is a basic overhaul of the current regime and the introduction of new and able-bodied players. Whether the current archaic leaders recognize it or not, “Out with the old, in with the new” is the only solution. 

- Wided Khadraoui graduated from the London School of Economics with an MSc in conflict studies. She is a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and writes on issues on the Middle East and North Africa, especially the Maghreb, at www.livefromthecasbah.com. 

-  Originally published by Institute for Policy Studies is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.

'Major Devastation' in Turkey Quake (NEWS BRIEF)

(Video: SkyTurk via YOUTUBE)

(HN, October 23, 2011 - UPDATED 2300GMT) - Hundreds of people are feared dead in an afternoon, 7.2 magnitude earthquake which struck the impoverished eastern regions of Turkey Sunday.

Video broadcast by the Canadian Broadcast Corporation (CBC) showed massive devastation, with buildings collapsed and people screaming.

In a bulletin several hours after the first quake, the US Geological Survey (USGS) said a magnitude 6.0 quake hit 20 km northwest of Van at a depth of 9 km.

Istanbul-based journalist Dorion Jones told CBC that the area is one of the poorest in Turkey, with building codes rarely enforced. He added that cold weather has already hit a region that is both mountainous and, in parts, sparsely populated.

One Arab satellite channel showed ordinary people frantically digging through rubble with their bare hands.

Turkey's Hurriyet Daily News reported that three military C-130 aircraft are on their way to the region with relief supplies. It added that two battalions are on their way to the region to assist with relief efforts.

State-run television is reporting deaths in the dozens, but 1,000 could already be dead, said Mustafa Erdik, head of the Kandilli observatory. The epicentre appeared to be near Ercis, a town of 75,000 in the province of Van and close to the Iranian border. The bustling regional centre of Van is said to have sustained major damage, and its airport is reported to be closed, hampering relief efforts.

"Around 10 buildings have collapsed in the city of Van and around 25 or 30 have collapsed in Ercis, including a dormitory," Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said.

The Turkish Red Crescent said its workers are responding in the areas affected by the quake.  Red Crescent workers are focused on search and rescue efforts, providing blankets, stoves, food and water to survivors and operating disaster management centres in the mountainous and isolated region.

Turkey lies on one of the world's most active seismic zones. In 1999, two earthquakes killed about 18,000 people.

News agencies said the powerful quake also shook buildings in neighbouring Armenia, including in the capital Yerevan.

Offers of assistance have started to come in from around the world. The U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, Francis Ricciardone, Jr., said "we have been in touch with the Turkish authorities to offer all possible assistance."

Israeli President Shimon Peres has called his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, to give his condolences, Haaretz newspaper reported.

- HUMNEWS staff, agencies

Great Game in the Horn of Africa (PERSPECTIVE)

By Paul Mutter

Child soldier in Uganda, photo courtesy of UNICEFThe United States announced this past week that it is deploying a 100-man mission to assist the Ugandan government in tracking down the remnants of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), a force whose bloody conflict with the Ugandan military has devastated northern Uganda and its environs since 1987.

But why now, in 2011, is the U.S. government making this commitment to combat the LRA?

The humanitarian impulse is certainly present among policymakers, if for no other reason than humanitarianism scores political points in Washington. Multiple human rights groups have been supportive of the announcement. The Ugandan government and people certainly desire an end to this conflict. As undemocratic as the Ugandan government of Yoweri Museveni has proven, the state the LRA would establish—if we take stock of their rule over parts of northern Uganda—would almost certainly be an even more nightmarish place. Joseph Kony, the founder of the LRA who masquerades as a champion of his Acholi ethnic group and as a Christian mystic, has ordered the killing, maiming, and rape of tens of thousands of people across northern Uganda and neighboring countries. This “army” relies heavily on child soldiers and "concubines," young girls abducted from churches and schools to serve as servants and sex slaves.

Make no mistake: the LRA is an abominable threat to the Ugandan people—and to the people of Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic, countries the LRA moves in and out of seeking safe havens.

But we must not be blinded by the darkness of the LRA so much that we fail to see the tarnish that mars the U.S. and Ugandan governments’ joint interests in East Africa.

Why did Washington not intervene at any other point over the course of the LRA's horrendous, decades-long campaign in Northern Uganda, where civilians not caught in the sadistic sights of the LRA often found themselves in the crossfire between the terrorist army and the Ugandan military? George W. Bush sent advisers in 2008-9 to assist the Ugandan military in what is said to have been a botched capture operation, but why did it take five U.S. presidents to get to this stage—a stage in which the LRA has been, according to most reports, drastically weakened? What took Washington so long to finally accept this mandate, which human rights activists have been urging for years?

The Obama administration is not likely embracing a “Responsibility to Protect.” The sad answer is that only now, in the post-9/11 world, is there sufficient U.S. interest to risk getting "mired" in Africa. The unstated target of this 100-man deployment is, in fact, al-Qaeda.

AFRICOM and the Horn of Africa

The 100-strong force being sent to Uganda (ostensibly as advisers) will be overseen by AFRICOM, the new strategic command for Africa created by George W. Bush in 2007. AFRICOM provides billions of dollars worth of equipment to U.S. allies in Africa, as well as controversial training and intelligence-sharing programs, and even Special Forces deployments.

For AFRICOM, security imperatives intersect with economic ones. At AFRICOM's urging, for example, the U.S. military has designed war games involving the "fall" of Nigeria, the no. 5 source of U.S. oil imports, to insurgent forces. The United States has had a strategic interest since the 1990s in demonstrating its commitment to the security of Uganda, which has fought al-Shabab in Somalia and until recently bordered Sudan. Sudan, an Islamist pariah state and also an LRA supporter, is still on the radar for U.S. and Ugandan policymakers (especially with South Sudan's formation), but Somalia is the "new" looming terror threat, a "failed state" fought over by Islamist groups like al-Shabab and infiltrated by others. The United States asserts that a strong al-Qaeda presence there today has ill designs for the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, Ethiopia, Kenya, and as we saw in 2010, Uganda.

The Ugandans did not pull out from Somalia following the 2010 Kampala bombings, though, and remain committed to maintaining a force there, something other U.S. allies in Africa have been reluctant to do. Those boots on the ground might go some way in firmly establishing a central Somalia government the United States and Uganda can live with. As Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institute has said:

To the extent the United States has any interest in Somalia being stabilized, it has an interest in seeing the Ugandan government able to keep its own country together, and able to keep it its own forces partially deployed to Somalia in order to help with that country where there have been al-Qaida related groups in the past.

The United States is waging a drone war in Somalia. Although it is not on the scale of the campaigns in Pakistan or Yemen, this may soon change. But with "Black Hawk Down" never far removed from Washington’s memory, sending troops into Somalia will be a hard decision for U.S. officials to make. Furthermore, the United States is, once again after its brief dalliance with "provincial reconstruction teams," no longer as interested in nation building as in effecting regime change and targeted assassinations. Uganda helps the latter along nicely in Somalia and may one day make the former possible there in concert with AFRICOM.

For now and for the foreseeable future, the Ugandan forces in Somalia are working in line with U.S. interests (as are the Kenyans, who this very Monday entered Somalia in force and are fighting against al-Shahab).

A War for Oil?

There are also economic considerations, though these may be secondary to security concerns. Uganda is indeed hoping to exploit newly discovered oil and gas reserves, and the government has undertaken a hurried development campaign. But the United States is not well-placed at this time to pursue energy extraction opportunities there: the UK-registered Tullow Oil, joined by the French Total AS and the PRC's China National Offshore Oil Corporation, holds the best energy extraction hand in Uganda today. The U.S. government is, naturally, keeping an eye on the sector, and as The Economist notes, "several jealous Western governments and companies want to stall China’s advance into the Congo basin, with its vast reserves of minerals and timber."

Whatever potential Uganda holds—in and of itself and as a gateway to the DRC—China's much stronger economic position in Uganda and the UK's ties to its former colony do not leave the United States much economic leeway besides foreign aid allocations at this point. But what is clear is that Washington’s commercial prospects in Uganda in the coming years will depend on the security situation.

Emboldening Museveni

Perhaps the most pressing issue for Ugandans, however, is the extent to which U.S. assistance might not only stir up a renewed conflict in the region but also embolden Yoweri Museveni—once hailed as an upstanding member of "a new generation of African leaders"—to further crack down on opposition politicians in Uganda, which until 2005 was an officially one-party state.

As Wikileaks disclosures show, the United States holds few illusions about the undemocratic and corrupt tendencies of Museveni and his party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM). "It appears Ugandan security services spend the majority their time tracking opposition leaders and critics of the NRM," reported a 2010 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Kampala.

Museveni's participation in the Second Congolese War, in which Ugandan military forces and their Congolese allies were accused of trafficking "blood diamonds" and committing human rights abuses, also damaged his international image. His questionable domestic record on both human rights and corruption issues has further soured foreign lenders and leaders toward him. The presidential election held in Uganda earlier this year delivered Museveni another stellar victory, though it was marred by accusations of intimidation on the part of the security apparatus and ruling party, accusations that the U.S. Embassy found credible in previous elections.

Protests against Museveni's policies have frequently turned deadly thanks to the intervention of the state security apparatus, and just days after the U.S. deployment was announced, Ugandan security forces arrested 45 "Action 4 Change" activists, 15 of whom will be tried for treason. If convicted, they will be subject to a death sentence.

Action 4 Change is a coalition of opposition parties, community organizers, and rights groups who have undertaken a series of "walk to work" protests to demonstrate against food and fuel price increases. The Ugandan government asserts that Action 4 Change members are not nonviolent demonstrators but disgruntled electoral losers plotting the overthrow of the government. And Uganda Radio Network reports that a 500-man Coalition for Stable Uganda (CSU), led by an NRM member, has been formed "to counter activities of [the] Action for Change Coalition" because "there is no doubt in [the CSU's] minds that the opposition actions are well coordinated with backing from other forces bent [on] destabilizing Uganda, loot[ing] property, and caus[ing] deaths."

This landmark U.S. assistance to Uganda against the LRA, simply by putting boots on the grounds, surpasses any past offers of foreign or diplomatic aid from U.S. officials. But will Washington pressure Museveni to clean up corruption or scale back his crackdown on Action 4 Change? That's the sort of discussion that needs to be happening.

- Paul Mutter is a graduate student at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU and a contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus. 

Originally published by Institute for Policy Studies licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.