Thousands Fleeing Conflict in Sudan's Disputed Abyei Region (NEWS BRIEF)

(HN May 27, 2011) - Thousands of people are fleeing the conflict in the disputed Abyei region between north and south Sudan, prompting aid agencies to rush support to neighbouring areas and triggering a harsh condemnation by the UN's human rights chief.

As the security situation in the area continues to be volatile, the UN and other agencies are providing trucks, essential non-food relief items, fuel and medicines to support humanitarian operations. However continued violence has forced some mission back.

Northern troops, aircraft and tanks overran the border town of Abyei on Saturday, sending 40,000 residents fleeing and drawing condemnation from the international community, saying the action is a threat to peace between north and south.

The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, today called on both sides of the conflict to immediately cease hostilities and respect international human rights and humanitarian law. “I condemn the recent attacks and counter-attacks in the Abyei region by both sides – this is certainly no way to advance the peaceful coexistence of North and South Sudan,” she said.

“I am particularly alarmed by the shelling of civilian areas in Abyei by the SAF, as well as reports of aerial bombardment in other locations such as Todacch, Tajalei and in the vicinity of the River Kiir bridge. I urge all parties to explore a negotiated solution to the Abyei crisis and to avoid a descent into further conflict and chaos.”

Elisabeth Byrs of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said at a press briefing today in Geneva monitored by HUMNEWS that it was also possible – but not confirmed – that UN offices and stocks in Abyei have been looted. 

Reports suggest that tens of thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs) have poured into Southern Sudan's Warrap, Unity and Northern Bahr El Ghazal states, says the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Many are in need of food and water and, with the recent heavy rains, may be vulnerable to water-borne diseases and respiratory tract infections. 

IOM says it has registered four truck loads of IDPs who arrived in Turalei in Warrap State on May 25th.  A further 1,000 IDPs arrived yesterday, May 26th , in Wunrok, south of Turalei. 

IOM, which has registered some 6,500 IDPs in the past two days, has also provided transport for 138 IDPs who were walking towards Gogrial West, south west of Wunrok.

IOM is also distributing 1,000 kits containing non-food relief items, including plastic sheeting, jerry cans, mosquito nets, soap, blankets, sleeping mats and cooking utensils in Mayen Abun, and Turalei in Warrap State. It is also helping to construct emergency latrines.

Tracking and assessing the displaced population has been difficult because many people are still on the move or are hiding in the bush.  The continued heavy rainfall has made some roads impassable and this has impeded access to areas where IDPs may be sheltering.

Also in the works for longer term assistance, which will include providing trucks to humanitarian organisations, coordinating the distribution of non-food relief items, procuring equipment to treat and distribute clean water, and organising the return of IDPs back to Abyei, once the crisis is over.  

- HUMNEWS staff, UN

Food Insecurity: Who Will Save Us, the Smallholder or Large-scale Farmer? (PERSPECTIVE)

A food market in the Burundian capital of Bujumbura, where prices have skyrocketed in recent months. CREDIT: M Bociurkiw/HUMNEWSBy Saliem Fakir

Land reform in South Africa is back as a lead item on the government’s agenda. It is a tacit admission that the process over the last seventeen years was a failure. The issue must also be seen in the light of growing food insecurity, as food prices seem to only go up rather than down.

South Africa’s land reform policy is not only a way to redress past loss but also an attempt to diversify farming as mainly white farmers dominate farming. However, in opening up the space for new entrants, the policy has inadvertently favoured larger farmers.

This too has not been entirely successful.

For a set of different reasons, the balance between small and large farming is quite important. Something we still have to get right. And, how we deal with it going forward will also determine how we deal with food insecurity.

In the meantime, food insecurity grows the world over, especially in Africa, where agriculture has not quite performed the way it should have despite the huge potential for both rain fed and irrigated farming.

Just as an illustration of the global challenge: about 925 million people are undernourished. Developing countries account for 98% of this number, while a significant number live in sub-Saharan Africa.  Feeding an additional 1.4 billion people by 2030 or a global population of 9.1 billion people by 2050 would require food production to increase by 50%.

The race to feed the world adequately is on. The question is, who can best help meet this projected demand: small or large farmers?

In classic supply and demand economics, food inflation tends to improve food production as high prices incentivise more planting. But the beneficiaries tend to be large farmers and commercialised agribusiness because of access to finance, well-established logistics and connections with the market. They tend to respond more quickly to incentives from increased food price shifts. 

However, there is considerable scope to look again at the role of smallholders in developing countries, especially Africa, where opportunity is ripe and also given that the success of large-holding ventures have not been as promising as initially thought.

There has also been a traditional bias against smallholding. In South Africa, smallholders have received little policy support, subsidies or preferential funding. The bias continues despite changes to land policy since 1994. Smallholdings are still thought of as being uneconomical and inefficient.

However, a report by Oxfam titled, Who Will Feed the World? The Production Challenge, seeks to dispel some of the myths around family run smallholding and small farming in general. The paper shows that in Vietnam and Thailand, family farming is highly productive and provides sufficient sources of income and food security for large rural populations.

Smallholding income can also be far more productive for rural areas than export orientated or foreign-owned large farms because any income earned, is spent in the rural area. This tends to stimulate other forms of rural economic activity besides simply just holding down the growth of unemployment.

However, the bias in favour of large-scale farming in Africa is being bolstered by a combination of factors acting in concert with each other.

Countries, such as China and Saudi Arabia, with significant sovereign funds are taking liberties by purchasing large chunks of land, most of which is in Africa, as they seek to feed their own growing populations and solve their own food insecurity. They tend to favour staple food or even cash crops that are capital intensive and largely labour saving operations.

Currently, Africa registers the lowest level of agricultural productivity in the world and this combined with the lack of infrastructure, large geographic spread and conflict, reinforces policy bias in favour of large-scale farming operations.

Large-farms tend to be associated with more productivity. They get favoured above investment in small-scale farming because foreign investors also inject significant investment in roads, irrigation schemes, power supply and making new market connections.

There is also that dazzle effect as big is seen as beautiful with the usual promise of lots of jobs and cash.

Some African children, like this young girl in Nigeria, consume just one meal-a-day due to high food prices. CREDIT: M Bociurkiw/HUMNEWSIncreased migration from rural cities to urban areas in the next decade or so is expected to double. The demand for food will grow while the supply of labour in rural areas to plough land and harvest fields is going to diminish.

Proponents for the revival of agriculture in Africa take these as cues for the defence of large-scale farming.

They argue that modern agriculture – in terms of technology, markets and finance – favour larger holdings as they give better economies of scale, they are more productive, efficient and it is the only way to meet growing demand for food quickly.

Opponents argue that this model tends to favour corporate agribusiness. That agriculture becomes too commercialised and less attuned to a pro-poor agenda.

Large-scale farming can also displace smallholdings through consolidation or African governments desperate for foreign investment who will grant concessions that involve the removal of people -- raising questions about land rights and other entitlements that are eroded as a result. 

Overseas sovereign funds that own these large tracts of land can also undermine national development objectives. They are not necessarily pro-poor even if they create jobs.

While Brazil has shown that large-farming, that is export orientated (cash crops such as soya), can boost foreign earnings and the country’s reserves. This is not often the case with farms owned by foreign sovereign wealth funds – depending on how governments set capital repatriation terms on earnings – as access to land does not translate into localising benefits in a substantive manner.

Sometimes, developing countries would be better off with a lesser evil. Large retail businesses, like supermarkets, that have strong supply chain ties and favour small holder production can do more for smallholders as they are more likely to create beneficiation than foreign holding of land that is unconditional.

A retail food market that is decidedly pushed in a pro-poor direction can ensure that contract arrangements retain the smallholding character of African agriculture and help diversify crop production from staple to high value crops. They could bring financial stability through long-term contracts.

Sometimes large-scale farming makes sense for crops that have short shelf lives and require good storage and transport infrastructure so they can be dispatched quickly to overseas markets. In areas where a large in-migration of labour is required mechanised large-scale farming is probably better suited because labour intensity is not an option.

In the meantime, about five hundred million smallholders currently support two billion people. They are an important part of the agricultural system. However, most smallholders (close to 60%) either produce sufficiently for themselves or have to still purchase food to meet all their requirements.

The Oxfam paper argues for complementarity, while overwhelmingly suggesting that smallholdings can vastly improve the productivity and value for African rural economies provided the right types of policies and forms of support are put in place. The paper though, intriguingly, says little about co-operatives and nationally owned farms.

A pragmatic approach may be warranted in this debate. It is not, as numerous studies have also shown, an either/or situation. Smallholders can bring far more than just economic activity in rural areas as they also can act as safeguards over social capital. Large-holders whose aim is to see agriculture as an investment opportunity will always see it that way rather than protecting a way of life.

Fakir is an independent writer based in Cape Town. This article first appeared on the website of the South African Civil Society Information Service (SACSIS)

Exploiting the Commons - Time to Change Course (PERSPECTIVE)

The poor are the most heavily impacted by exploitation of the environment, argues Ashton. CREDIT: HUMNEWSBy Glenn Ashton

The business of exploiting the natural resources of the world for profit continues at an ever-increasing rate. While people are the generally unwitting drivers of exploitation and damage to natural resources, the real driver is laissez faire capitalism, as pursued by the dominant corporate-political nexus.

We all rely on our collective natural resources – water, air, soil, natural diversity – to keep us alive. This is the natural commons of the planet, the common property of all living organisms, which happens to include humans. The commons includes the biosphere, the living aspect of the planet that sustains the web of life upon which we are each individually and collectively dependent. 

We each have a collective interest and ownership of the commons. The commons is on loan to present generations from future generations yet to be born. Accordingly we individually and collectively bear responsibility to maintain the natural commons in a condition that is as pristine and unspoiled as possible.

The reality is that large commercial entities rely on exploiting the commons to provide the resources and services from which they profit. In doing so the commons is exploited for private gain. Any and all negative impacts on the commons are externalised. Thus the real long-term cost and impact of exploiting the commons is indirectly borne by every living species that inhabits our biosphere. Degradation of any single aspect of the common space inevitably has knock-on impacts in this interconnected world. 

Pollution of the air, water, land or destruction and exploitation of biodiversity are today taken for granted. These collective impacts are now exhibiting such a massive impact on the collective planetary organism, that life as we know it is in distinct danger of unravelling.

James Martin, who predicted the Internet and cell phones in the 1960's, is founder of Oxford University's 21st Century School. He hired the world's top brains to predict future scenarios. Their collective conclusion was that, should we continue as we are there will be a few breeding pairs of humans left at the poles by the end of this century. This may seem extreme to us in our comfortable cocoon, but the everyday reality of extinction faces not only humanity but many other species of life on earth.

Water resources are under extreme pressure in many parts of the developing world. CREDIT: M Bociurkiw/HUMNEWSCorporations engage with the public through advertising and public relations to sell as much of their product as possible. On the other they insist that they have green credentials. The inherent contradiction of these claims is visible to anyone prepared to look.

Through carefully devised psychology, through which they justify their impacts as essential to our collective well being, industry does its utmost to portray itself to society as benign. This is now commonly termed “greenwashing,” the whitewashing of negative environmental impacts.

In reality, greenwash has become the status quo. Its practitioners realise precisely how they dishonestly portray their destructive practices as “green.” The massive PR industry, involved in both spin and advertising, work only to hoodwink us, the public. And in order to feel okay we want to believe the lies. 

In this regard South Africans are essentially more vulnerable than most other nations because of our high levels of inequality and poverty. 

The motivation for exploitation of the commons is portrayed as an ongoing attempt to create employment, to provide services for those attempting to escape the poverty trap, to create wealth and prosperity for all. The alternative, we are reminded, is too awful to contemplate.

The reality is somewhat different. The garden path we are being led down is actually creating the circumstances which are truly too awful to contemplate. The commons has been so badly eroded that the well being of future generations has already become irrevocably compromised. 

We need to ask whether we are going about things the right way. 

We grow our food in ways that waste water, that pollute water and that erode the land. The very practice of intensive, industrial agriculture is ultimately a destructive practice, from the level of soil biodiversity at the bottom, to the impacts on mega-biodiversity above. The external costs and impacts on our collective commons are far higher than the benefit we reap from the crops we harvest.

Our ways of providing energy destroy the very fabric of the land. Mining coal creates acid mine drainage, polluting water sources. The atmosphere is a dumping ground for greenhouse and noxious gases and poisons. We are left with heaps of slag and biologically sterile waste. While the health impacts are borne by all, the poorest are least able to cushion themselves against these impacts on the natural world.

It has become increasingly difficult for the common man to decide just who the good guys are. For instance the very organisation that is tasked with monitoring and managing the impacts of these activities on our collective commons, which maintains the global database of threatened species, a huge organisation known as Conservation International (CI), is funded directly by some of the worlds most pernicious polluters.

ArcelorMittal, BHP Billiton, BP, Cargill, Chevron, Coca-Cola, De Beers, Goldman Sachs, Kraft Foods, MacDonald’s, Monsanto, Newmont Mining, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Rio Tinto, Shell, Walmart and many other major corporations fund CI. The contradictions in accepting funding while promoting conservation were recently pointed out in an excellent article by Chris Lang.

Other reputable conservation organisations like the World Wildlife Fund are funded by a similar list of corporate partners. Coca-Cola, IBM, HP, Toyota, Walmart, IKEA, Cargill, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and many others are directly involved in funding this self-appointed conservation organisation. 

This is not to say that organisations like WWF and CI are evil or that their motivation is to undermine our collective commons. The real issue is that these supposed guardians of the global commons, of our collective biosphere, are profoundly compromised through their ties to industry, just as our governments are more responsive to corporate interests than to those of their citizens. 

These organisations cannot truly claim to provide actual, meaningful or sustainable solutions to the problems of deforestation, of over fishing, of global warming, or to change the global industrial agricultural paradigm if they are so compromised by their funders. WWF is even involved in a programme called the Roundtable on Sustainable Soy that benefits major agricultural entities like Monsanto and Cargill, while simultaneously destroying our common biodiversity.

Even groups like Greenpeace, portrayed as radical environmental campaigners are compromised by their intrinsic ties to the exploitative economic system. Of course all of these organisations will howl against these allegations but what else are they to do? Yet it is notable that more radical groups like Earth First and the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society are gaining a broader credence that ties in with the forceful arguments made by thinkers like Derrick Jensen, Joanna Macey and Vandana Shiva.

While the poorest are the most profoundly impacted, those protesting the exploitation are largely relatively wealthy and well educated. This creates a major disconnect about who speaks for who. Do the poor and exploited actually have any voice at all in this debate? The reality is that they are effectively gagged by many of very same organisations that claim to speak for them. Consultation and stakeholder agreements are tools to placate wealthy interests while the “bottom billion” or two remain outside the negotiation tent, as do most other species on earth.

So at the heart of it our existing system is broken. We, together our institutions, are too compromised to truly care for the commons. Changing our system is assumed to be a quixotic quest. Yet there are certainly other, better ways of doing things than continuing down the road we are being led down by governments, dictated to in turn by the lords of corporate and free market ideology. 

Many hoped, in a perverse kind of way that the global economic crisis of 2008 would prove so disruptive to the dominant economic model that something new would be able to emerge. That was not to be. However our model of endless growth, founded upon continued externalisation of its environmental impact will certainly founder, probably sooner rather than later. We cannot continue as we are. 

So surely we must begin to adapt our systems, now? We must explore ways that are utterly different to our dominant, exploitative economic model. New economics, the zero growth model, green capitalism, triple bottom line accounting and so on are all ideas that have been floated. But are they enough? 

These are not questions we have much time to contemplate. They should be placed at the top of our list of priorities. The alternative is simple – the extinction of people, along with the systems that sustained them. Surely examining our rather uncomfortable predicament can no longer be postponed? It can certainly no longer be sidetracked by the oligarchy that controls the corporate-political nexus. 

Perhaps a real starting point would be to meaningfully redistribute the ill-gotten gains from the 1% at the top that control nearly half of the worlds wealth and to use this to begin to apply first aid to an ailing world and society? It is not only the poor who are staring down the barrel of desperation but increasingly the exploited middle and emerging middle classes as well. 

At its root this discussion is not only about class or structure, it is one that affects us all; together with every living thing that shares our world. It must be prioritised. Our failure to embrace fundamental change condemns our children to a world closer to hell than to heaven.

Ashton is a writer and researcher working in civil society. Some of his work can be viewed at www.ekogaia.org. This article first appeared on the site of the South Africa Civil Society Information Service (SACSIS)

Tajikistan: The Changing Insurgent Threats (ANALYSIS)

Photo courtesy of ICGby The International Crisis Group

Tajikistan, by most measures Central Asia’s poorest and most vulnerable state, is now facing yet another major problem: the growing security threat from both local and external insurgencies.

After his security forces failed to bring warlords and a small group of young insurgents to heel in the eastern region of Rasht in 2010-2011, President Emomali Rakhmon did a deal to bring a temporary peace to the area. But he may soon face a tougher challenge from the resurgent Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a group with a vision of an Islamist caliphate that is fighting in Afghanistan alongside the Taliban.

That conflict is moving closer to the 1,400km Afghan-Tajik border. Many anti-government guerrillas operating in northern Afghanistan are of Central Asian origin and are largely affiliated with the IMU, which seems to be focusing on its fight against the government in Kabul but may at some stage turn its attention northwards. Tajikistan has almost no capacity to tackle a dedicated insurgent force; its efforts to quell problems in Rasht have left its only well-trained counter-insurgency unit with just over 30 fighters.

A decade of increased international attention and aid has failed to make Tajikistan more secure or prosperous. A kleptocracy centred on the presidential family has taken much of the money from assistance and aluminium. Popular discontent over poverty and failing services has been kept in check by repression and an exodus of the dissatisfied as migrant workers. All institutions have been hollowed out, leaving a state with no resilience to cope with natural disasters, economic crises or political shocks.

A new generation of guerrillas is emerging, both within Tajikistan and in the IMU. They are mostly men in their twenties with little memory of the Tajik civil war of 1992-1997. This development has punctured two comfortable assumptions: that the IMU was a forlorn rump of ageing jihadists and that Tajiks were too scarred by the memory of the brutal civil war to turn on the regime. The latter has long been central to the analyses of both the Tajik leadership and many foreign governments.

The secular, Soviet-trained leadership that emerged from the civil war now finds itself dealing with a society increasingly drawn to observant Islam. The regime’s response to this is as inept as its efforts to bring Rasht to heel. Tajiks studying in foreign Islamic institutions have been called home; the government is trying to control the content of Friday sermons and prevent young people from visiting mosques; it has also dismissed some clerics. Officials allege that the main opposition party, the Islamic Renaissance Party, is becoming increasingly radicalised. Clumsy policies may make this a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Jihadist groups, too, are paying more attention to Tajikistan. Limited infiltration of armed guerrillas from Afghanistan has been taking place for several years. The numbers seem relatively small and their intent unknown. Many pass through to other countries – notably Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Some, however, are probably probing for government vulnerabilities. A small number of fighters from the North Caucasus have also been active in Tajikistan in recent years.

Radicalization by osmosis is growing: Tajikistan is gradually becoming part of the virtual jihad. Islamist websites are paying increasing attention to events in the country. Islamic militants in Tajikistan are adopting tactics already well known in other jihadist struggles, notably in the North Caucasus. In September 2010 the country witnessed what was described as its first suicide bombing. And while most military attention is focused on Rasht, the northern border area of Isfara, not far from Khujand, is developing the reputation of a safe haven for armed militants.

Billions of dollars of drugs pass through Tajikistan en route to Russia and China every year. There is a strong suspicion within the international community that senior members of the ruling elite are protecting the transit of narcotics from Afghanistan. High-level protection is almost certainly undermining international organisations’ attempts to control the border with Afghanistan – efforts that officials involved admit have had very little effect. At a time of growing menace from Afghanistan, the first line of defence is being kept artificially weak.

With the IMU engaged, for now, in Afghanistan, it would be advisable to use whatever breathing space is available to re-evaluate security and aid policies.

China, a silent but crucial player in the region with vital security interests, could usefully be drawn into joint consultations, along with the U.S., Russia and others, on measures to assess the security problems and possible responses.

Bilateral and multilateral donors should examine the utility of providing assistance to a regime that cannot prevent a very significant proportion being lost to corruption. Conditionality should be adopted as the norm. The Tajik government should be put on notice that a failure to address support for the narcotics trade within its own elite will seriously damage its credibility and outside support.

President Rakhmon denies that the North African scenario of popular unrest and revolt could happen in Tajikistan; despite the different circumstances, such confidence is questionable.

Tajikistan is so vulnerable that a small, localised problem could quickly spiral into a threat to the regime’s existence. The speed with which the popular mood can move from passivity to anger was demonstrated not just in the Middle East, but much closer to home, in Kyrgyzstan, in April 2010. Tajikistan is not immune.

- The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict. The recommendations by ICG on the above topic can be found  here.

Change in a New World (PERSPECTIVE)

By Alina Vrejoiu

Many people have criticized Barack Obama for putting his reputation on the line by being the first U.S president to boldly declare that the Israeli border should go back to the 1967 lines and insisting that a Jewish state "cannot be fulfilled with permanent occupation" of Palestinian lands.

The dramatic remarks were made only a week after Obama successfully caught one of the biggest terrorist masterminds.President Obama delivers the historic Middle East speech. CREDIT: White House

It is by no accident that Obama is carefully strategizing his move in terms of the juxtaposition events from the past - comparing the upheaval in the Middle East and Africa to the American Revolution and the Civil Rights movement - and present in order to make his next move in the Middle East. He knows that there is a thirst by the public for dignity and freedom and he is willing to move out ahead into the torrent of change. Israel, on the other hand, is not ready for this sudden change to happen even though a democratic approach would work in its favor.

Obama has reassured the Israelis in his recent meeting on May 19th with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that, “Our commitment to Israel's security is unshakable. And we will stand against attempt to single it out for criticism in international forums.”

Obama was, unfortunately, criticized for siding with the Israelis instead of understanding that we are not going to take sides. Yes, the United States sees Israel as an ally because we are supposed to share the same values and because it is the only country in the Middle East that embraces democracy and freedom.

However, in Obama's landmark Cairo speech of June 2009 he strongly recognized the suffering of Palestinian people through dispossession, occupation, and refugee status.

Said Obama: "...It is also undeniable that the Palestinian people - Muslims and Christians - have suffered in pursuit of a homeland. For more than sixty years they have endured the pain of dislocation. Many wait in refugee camps in the West Bank, Gaza, and neighboring lands for a life of peace and security that they have never been able to lead. They endure the daily humiliations - large and small - that come with occupation. So let there be no doubt: the situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable. America will not turn our backs on the legitimate aspiration for dignity, opportunity, and a state of their own."

With the Palestinian population steadily growing and technology and social networking playing a big role in revolution and change, there is an urgency like never before to establish peace between these two parties. The existing state of affairs is no longer sustainable; there must be agreement to conform to a peace process and Israel should take the lead in these negotiations.

Obama has made it clear that neither he nor the United Nations can force an agreement if face-to-face discussions don’t happen and there is no real determination for peace to occur. After all, the 1967 line settlement was supposed to be for Israeli defense purposes and we have seen Jewish family settlements put in place instead.

Transparency and open dialogues with a fair redrawing of state lines is the only way a peace process can begin to flourish. I hope we will not allow misconceptions to contaminate history once again.

Establishing a new government and a new state for Palestinians that will allow for freedom of speech, thought and free elections is better than one that imposes its ideology by force.  Israel needs to step up to the plate and recognize a Palestinian state in order to move forward into the new world.  Waiting for a peace accord is no longer an option in the Middle East.

Alina Vrejoiu is a faculty member of Kingsborough Community College in Brooklyn, New York and has taught international students for the last four years.

Egypt: Mother of the Revolution (REPORT/BLOG)

By Alan Fisher

On a sun baked hill in a quiet corner of noisy Alexandria, Khaled Said's grave is unremarkable.

Perhaps the flowers on top are more watered than the others, but the tombstone simply states his name next to a short verse from the Koran. It also has the date of his death, the 6th of June, 2010, the day many here say marked the beginning of Egypt's revolution.

Khaled was 28.  He'd gone out to use an internet cafe in the coastal city.  It was a Sunday night.

According to one man who says he was there, two policemen walked in and there was some sort of row with them and Khalid. The police started to beat him.  Khalid tried to fight back or escape. In the confusion, it was hard to tell. In the scuffle, the young man's head hit a marble table with a sickening thud and blood began to pour from his head.

The police then pulled him out of the cafe.

A few hours later, Khalid Said was dead. The police say he tried to swallow a bag of drugs he was carrying and choked. The pictures of his body show a face that was bashed and bruised. It is difficult to look at.

News of the death spread quickly through the internet. Facebook pages in his honour were created and protests called in his name.

For many in Egypt, the incident on a warm summer's night summed up all that was wrong with Egypt.

The protests that started in Alexandria spread and soon the anonymous young man's name became known around the country, and the Middle East and then the world. His death became the spark that lit the fires of indignation and anger which erupted into revolution.

It was a death that changed a country, and pained a family.

Leyla Qasim comes regularly to speak with her son at his grave in Alexandria. She wears black in his memory. A pendant with a picture hangs from her neck and she constantly plays with her worry beads.

She comes to tell her son about the changes in the country and the role he played.

She shares the latest developments in the court case of the two policemen charged with killing him.

They've been in court eight times now.  

As she sits by the grave Leyla Qasim tells me: "I will get my justice when Khaled gets his, and when Khaled gets his justice then so will Egypt.'

She is in no doubt of the verdict she wants, no sympathy for those who robbed her of her son. "Those who killed Khaled must also die.  The policemen who killed him are not human, they are wild animals. They want to put my son on trial, fine – put him on trial. Put him on trial, and then release him. But they shouldn't have killed him – they don't have that right – so these policemen are animals."

The authorities know how charged this whole case is, how much the people across Egypt are invested in the verdict. The courthouse in Alexandria looks out over the Mediterranean. It's tired and worn, but on the day the police officers appear in court again, it is ringed by armoured personnel carriers. There are dozens of soldiers and military policemen. They stand idly chatting but are dressed for trouble.

Throughout the day, a crowd gathers, some with banners, some just to stand and watch. Most are young – like Khaled. One woman tells us: "This is a human being. Two men ganged up on him and beat him up and it is obvious from the pictures before and after what happened to him."  While a man is animated and passionate: "We've lived under oppression for the last 30 years and now we won't let any wrongdoing or the death of Kahlid Said pass easily. We now have nothing to be afraid of."

The judges handed the case have heard enough. The arguments, the evidence have been presented, and now they will deliver their verdict on June 30th. The crowds will be back, the world will watch. And Lelya Qasim will go once more to her son's grave and tell him what the court has decided and how much he's missed.

Originally published by Al Jazeera on May 22, 2011 under Creative Commons Licensing 

The Dangers of Albania's Disputed Election (ANALYSIS/BLOG)

Albania elections - photo courtesy of ICGBy Sabine Freizer

Albania’s second disputed election in three years threatens to push the country over the edge.

Almost two weeks after local elections, preliminary results have yet to be announced.

This is the time for sustained, coordinated international action to press parties to abide by the legal framework in place. The Socialist Party should immediately appeal the decision of the Central Election Commission (CEC), to change counting procedures, to the highest appropriate legal mechanism (the Electoral College), which should decide the issue on the basis of current practice.  All parties should exercise restraint if conflict is to be avoided; clarity is urgently required for the smooth running of future elections.

The Economist is not exaggerating when it writes that, Albania today stands “on the brink" of a return to violence”. A tight mayoral race in Tirana, a highly polarised environment which contributed to four deaths in January, and divisions within the security forces make bloodshed an unnerving possibility unless legal procedures are fully respected. Albania has a history of disputed elections, parliamentary boycotts and political violence.

The unofficial preliminary results of the Tirana vote gave the incumbent, Socialist Party (SP) leader Edi Rama, an edge of just ten ballots over his rival, former Interior Minister Lulzim Basha, out of a quarter million cast. In a sense then, no one won the mayoral race: for all practical purposes, it was a draw.

Albania nonetheless has to grant victory to one of the candidates on the most scrupulous application of previously-agreed rules. Any tactical application of new counting rules, no matter how fair they might sound in isolation, would ex-post facto alter the rules of the game and risk plunging Albania into chaos.

After the Central Election Commission (CEC) -- dominated by the Democratic Party (DP), which is part of the coalition behind Basha -- decided to change the counting procedure on 18 May, Rama and his Socialist supporters began threatening large scale protests. Minor clashes occurred between SP Members of Parliament and the police in front of the CEC immediately after announcement of the postponement. Two SP deputies are now under investigation for fomenting violence. There were more disturbances on 19 May.  

Until that point, the 8 May elections were generally considered calm, though at times voting was slow, and counting was a drawn out process. The delay was compounded when the CEC did not publish preliminary results for the Tirana race.  

The OSCE, the EU, and the US and European embassies in Tirana called on the CEC to complete tabulation of the Tirana results and publish them expeditiously on 17 May. They also noted that the appeals and claims procedures should be fully respected and the two main parties, the Socialist and Democratic Parties, should exercise self-restraint. The EU and EU High Representative Catherine Ashton made similar statements on 18 May. Ashton also added “All political leaders carry a particular responsibility not to put lives of citizens at risk.” Crisis Group fully supports these exhortations.

But instead of heeding this call, the CEC -- by a vote of four to three, which seems in itself against the electoral code -- decided on 18 May to include irregular ballots from several Tirana elections administration zones in the final tally, not only further delaying the process but potentially -- some say likely -- changing the result. Voters who had multiple ballots in Tirana to put in designated boxes sometimes failed to do so correctly, in part because the ballots were not clearly distinguished by color. The status of these ballots is the technical source of the current conflict.

The Election Code does not clearly state what should happen to these ballots. But in the 2007 local elections and 2009 general elections, they were considered invalid. Experts in the CEC had strongly advised the CEC to clarify the status of these misplaced ballots before election day, but they failed to do so. During most training sessions, commissioners were told to consider them invalid, and most election commissioners on this basis finalised the counting process for Tirana mayor and country wide.  

The SP has said that it will use all available legal channels to oppose the CEC decision to count the contested or invalid ballots, and it has called for massive protests. It has not yet appealed, but should do so immediately as it has only five days to do so to the Electoral College after the 18 May CEC decision. The College then has five days to issue a verdict.

In its Preliminary Findings and Conclusions for the 8 May election, the International Elections Observation Mission (IEOM) positively assessed the work of the Electoral College (the Court of Appeals of Tirana), whose decisions are final, but noted that it did not provide its reasoning which is crucial when a decision is returned to the CEC for review.  It also determined that the election code contains important gaps.

These legal and technical disputes now risk exacerbating an already deep and resentful political conflict between Rama, still the sitting Mayor of the capital city, and Albanian’s Prime Minister Sali Berisha and their respective supporters. Public protests risk becoming violent in the currently highly charged environment.

An investigation into the deadly violence at a DP rally in January has yet to be completed. Throughout the campaign period there were a large number of violent election-related incidents in several regions, including the killing of an SP candidate’s relative, non-fatal shooting incidents, explosions targeting the property of candidates and parties, beatings and threats, which marred the campaign environment according to the IEOM and Crisis Group observation. A conflict between the Tirana police and the Ministry of Interior and each other’s authority to intervene to respond to public protests also developed during the campaign.  

While the SP is likely to feel that it can only attract the wider international community’s attention to developments in Albania if it holds massive street protects, the DP is likely to feel that protests and violence will work in its favor and further discredit Rama. If the Electoral College rules in favor of the CEC, the CEC members from the SP are unlikely to certify the final results, and Rama is highly unlikely to recognise any election results that overturn his expected win. If it rules in favor of the SP, a peaceful outcome is still possible as the SP and DP will continue to divide power -- and its spoils -- in Albania.

The EU, US and OSCE played a coordinated and effective role during the campaign period to reduce tensions. They must continue to do the same now, reinforcing from capitals the messages of the local embassies, especially as Albania is an EU candidate country that still has to undergo significant reforms to start full fledged membership negotiations.

The international community should clearly demand that Basha and Rama firmly commit to respect the verdict of the Electoral College. The European Commission should lift its recommendation to give Albania EU candidacy status if there is violence leading to fatalities during post election rallies.

President of the EU Commission Jose Manuel Barroso and Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule were supposed to be in Tirana today [20 May] but canceled their trip at the last minute, allegedly to show their displeasure with current developments. They lost the chance to deliver a consistent message to the parties clearly, in person. The international community should not squander such opportunities again.

- Sabine Freizer is the Istanbul-based Director of the Europe Program at the International Crisis Group

- Originally published on the International Crisis Group's new blog "The Balkan Regatta" May 20, 2011 The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict. 

Libya's Forgotten Front Line (REPORT/BLOG)

Photo courtesy: Al Jazeera By Mike Hanna

It is a point of conflict in recent weeks has faded from international focus.

Yet three months after the uprising began, opposition forces and those loyal to Muammer Gaddafi are still facing each other across a stretch of sandy no-man's land some 30km west of Ajdabia.  

In recent weeks the opposition forces have tightly controlled access to the frontline in the east of Libya. 

Commanders on the ground wary of the real time live coverage that at one point they believe threatened their operational security. 

An Al Jazeera team was granted access to the area at the invitation of the Az Zawiyah Brigade, which has been at the forefront of the conflict since the beginning of this revolution.

Ninety per cent of the brigade are volunteers, some retired army officers who returned to service, but the vast majority those who at the beginning of the year were civilians going about their normal lives.

Morale in the unit remains high.

We spoke to Issa Gabsi, one of the few men with real military experience. 

He has been wounded and evacuated twice, each time returning to the frontline as soon as possible. 

"It is important for those with military experience to return to the fight and help the people," he says simply.

One of the field commanders is Colonel Adil Geriani - a soft-spoken man with a ready smile and love of country music.  
He says he feels no hatred to those still supporting Gaddafi, but cannot understand why they are doing so.

"If I could just talk to them," he says gesturing across the expanse of no-mans land, "I would explain that we should all be on one side, that of Libya."

During the several hours we spent in the area there were repeated artillery barrages some 7km to the west.

Plumes of smoke discernable on the horizon, evidence that despite the threat of NATO air attacks the Gaddafi forces are still able to fire at will.

Opposition commanders tell us that they believe the Gaddafi troops are being reinforced, and new weapons are being deployed - in particular an extremely precise guided anti-tank missile they believe could be a Milan system (a sophisticated and deadly piece of weaponry).

There is among these opposition troops too a sense of deep frustration that much needed supplies are not being delivered.

There are no signs of the new communication systems and body armour that various countries had said they would provide. 

Questions here as well about the priorities of the civilian authorities back in Benghazi.

"We went to collect three new vehicles that had been earmarked for us last week," one of the commanders said. "We only got two because one had been appropriated by a National Transitional Council official."

This was placed in a stark context when we saw newly recruited volunteers arriving at the frontline on foot. There were no vehicles available to transport them from Ajdabia 10km away.

The Az Zawiyah Brigade has taken large numbers of casualties. 

Seven men were killed in a single missile strike earlier this month, among them a senior field commander, Hussein Al Awami. 

He was by all accounts not only respected, but also deeply liked by his men.

The day before he was killed he recorded a video message on a mobile phone in the field, leaping on to his vehicle he looks straight at the camera and says: "We are descendants of lions, at peace we are generous but at war we are fire and fury."

As we drive away, they are words that still seem to echo in the sands of this frontline.

- Originally published by Al Jazeera on May 18, 2011 under Creative Commons Licensing 

Emerging Economies Jockeying to Fill Top IMF Job (NEWS BRIEF)

(HN, May 19, 2011) - With the resignation yesterday of the disgraced chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, smaller member nations are lobbing to get their candidates short-listed for leader of the Washington-based multilateral agency.

Turkey is leading the pack of emerging economies, putting forth former finance minister Kamal Davis. He is a former World Bank employee and is widely credited with rescuing the Turkish economy from the devastating financial crisis of 2001.

In a post-World War II pact, leading powers decided that the IMF Managing Director post would normally be held by a European and the World Bank by an American. This is why the charismatic, high-profile French finance minister Christine Lagarde is most frequently mentioned as a front-runner for the 187-member body.

However powerful member nations such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (the so-called BRIC economies) and Japan are signalling that the selection process for the new IMF chief should be based on merit and conducting with transparency. Moreover, the IMF is said to be working to improve its governance by giving a greater voice to fast-growing developing economies such as Brazil and Turkey.

Brazil’s former Foreign Affairs minister Celso Amorim said that the next IMF Managing Director must come from an emerging economy, according to the MercoPress South Atlantic News Agency.

“I don’t think the IMF or the World Bank can continue to be monopolies of United States and Europe”, said Amorim. “If the next IMF Managing Director were to be chosen from an emerging country it would be much better since it would show the organization is more representative and sensitive to world changes, and that is very important."

The sentiment was echoed by Brazil's current finance minister, Guido Mantega.

Japan's finance minister Yoshihiko Noda urged IMF members Thursday to pick a new leader in a way that's "open, transparent and based on abilities."

He added: "I am expecting an appropriate person will be selected through such a process."

For the BRIC countries to marshal enough support to achieve a crucial 15 percent blocking minority on the IMF board, significant diplomatic effort would need to be expended, analysts say.

- HUMNews Staff 

Recovering Addict Describes Brazil's Deadly New Drug (INTERVIEW)

By Gabriel Elizondo

Elias looking out the window, thinking back about how Oxi almost killed him. Photo: Gabriel Elizondo/Al Jazeera

He does not want his full name used, and he asked me to protect his identity, so I’ll just call him ‘Elias'.

He lives in Rio Branco, the capital of Acre - the tiny Brazilian state that borders Bolivia and Peru in the Amazon region.

Elias once had a good job as a technician, a loving wife, and two kids aged three and seven. He almost lost it all when he got hooked on a new drug sweeping Brazil called Oxi - a deadly cocaine bi-product twice as powerful and addictive as crack.

Elias has been in drug rehabilitation three times in the past couple years.

Below is his first-hand testimony about his experience with Oxi and the great lengths he went to get his next hit.

The interview, which has been slightly condensed and edited for clarity, was conducted in-person in Rio Branco.

Gabriel Elizondo: Do you remember the first time you used Oxi?

Elias: I was living in Bolivia at the time. I was studying and working there. One weekend I was drinking, and I said I was going to go to Brazil. I went to the city of Epitaciolandia in Brazil.

I crossed the border from Bolivia, just to have a beer, and I met some people. They offered me a can and said, ‘try this.’ It was Oxi. I tried it and I fell in love with it. And I could never leave it.

That was 2005. From there it started to go downhill for me.

GE: You told me that before you used Oxi you used some marijuana and cocaine. How is Oxi different from those drugs?

Elias: Oxi is a drug that is a prime material to make crack cocaine. But Oxi is more pure. The effect of Oxi is very strong. When I used it, I could not go without it. The desire to use it was very big. It is so powerful, that in a matter of weeks I was totally addicted. I didn’t eat. I didn’t feel hungry. You lose hunger, and you’re desire for sleep.

But above all, it is very cheap. One rock can get you four inhales and it’s only five reais (about $3). Compare that to cocaine, which is about 100 reais a dose (about $61).

Oxi is cheap, you have easy access to it, and it is more devastating than other drugs and does more damage to your body faster.

Elias remembers how his addcition effected his kids. Photo: Maria Elena Romero/Al Jazeera

GE: Oxi was first noticed in Brazil 2005, here in Acre state. You live here, in the capital, Rio Branco. Has the drug had an effect on the people here in this city?

Elias: Oxi is a very popular drug now here in Rio Branco. It’s a drug that is devastating and getting everyone addicted. Before, when I lived in Rio Branco 20 years ago, there didn’t exist as many addicts because at that time Oxi didn’t exist. And then after that Oxi appeared on the streets, many people got addicted to it.

On the streets today I see people I used to use the drug with and they are like zombies walking around, going crazy.”

GE: How did your use of Oxi effect your family?

Elias: I would leave my house to use Oxi, and left all my family at home. My kids would start crying saying ‘dad, dad!’ I don’t like to remember this.

My kids suffered a lot. When I left to use the drug they stayed at home crying ... When I speak about my kids I get very emotional, it’s very hard. One time I even sold my kids new clothes to buy Oxi.

GE: Did your kids understand your drug addiction? And what about your wife?

Elias: My kids are very innocent, they are very young. They don’t understand a lot of things.

But the older one, when I used Oxi at home, he told me, ‘father why do you smoke, you get weird when you smoke that?’

When I smoked in the house my kids could smell it; the smell stays inside the house. All of this still weights heavily on me. I can’t believe I made my kids smell that.

GE: And your wife?

Elias: “My wife is a woman who never quit on me. But one day she old me, ‘OK, you have to choose between me and your kids, or Oxi.’ I chose Oxi. You can see how strong that drug is. And since I picked the drug she then said, ‘OK, I won’t quit on you, because I have faith in you.’

And until today she is still here with me. We have been together 16 years.”

An Oxi user in a dark park in Rio Branco. Photo: Maria Elena Romero/Al Jazeera

GE: Your worst moment using Oxi was when?

Elias: One time when I was smoking Oxi, my heart was beating so fast I fell on the ground and passed out. And then I woke up and saw the drug, and I used it again. I smoked it again.

At that point, I knew I was going to die. I got to a point that I could not live any longer with the drug or without the drug.

GE: You are in the final stages of your third attempt at drug rehabilitation. Do you think you will ever relapse to use Oxi again?

Elias: No, I will never return to that because I look at myself in the past and I don’t want that anymore in my life.

Today I can sit at the table with my family to have lunch. I can enjoy a birthday party with my kids. I realized that I don’t want to go back – there was too much suffering. But I admit, occasionally the desire for the drug is still there.”

- Originally published by Al Jazeera on May 17, 2011 under Creative Commons Licensing 

Al Jazeera will air a  two part series on Oxi in Brazil May 17 and 18th This interview was conducted last week in Rio Branco, Brazil.

Victory in Uganda Amidst Worsening Human Rights Situation (PERSPECTIVE)

By Sarah Gunther

Friday marked a victory for human rights activists in Uganda and the rest of the world, when its Parliament ended its session without voting on the Anti-Homosexuality Bill. 

The proposed bill was an unprecedented and unconstitutional attack on the lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans gender and inter sex (LGBTI) community - and on Uganda’s citizenry at large. It would have criminalized the “promotion of homosexuality,” including the provision of health and other essential services to LGBTI people, with three years in prison, and punished “aggravated homosexuality,” which entails homosexual acts by “serial offenders” and those who are HIV positive with the death penalty.

It was no coincidence that the Ugandan parliament galvanized new energy to pass the bill last week, at a time when Ugandan citizens are protesting high food and fuel prices and the government is cracking down with violence, repression and disregard for the rule of law.

In fact, the renewed push to pass the bill during the last week of parliament was a blatant political tactic to divert attention from the deteriorating human rights situation affecting all Ugandans. Over the past month, President Yoweri Museveni has responded to peaceful protests over sky-rocketing commodity prices by arresting opposition leaders, teargassing bystanders and using live ammunition on crowds.

According to Human Rights Watch, Ugandan security forces have killed at least nine unarmed people during the protests, including three in the back as they fled.

Beyond this crackdown, Museveni’s government has done little to respond to the expressed needs of its citizens, who can’t afford food or other basic needs. The Anti-Homosexuality Bill was nothing more than a hateful diversion.

There’s no question that the bill would have passed if it came to a floor vote. Museveni has publicly stated that he would veto the bill, but his government’s conduct of late makes it clear that he has no problem violating human rights to maintain power. Passing the Anti-Homosexuality Bill and pandering to the country’s hateful climate for LGBTI people would have garnered Museveni increased public approval at a time when he desperately needs it.

Uganda is a sovereign country and has the right to govern its own affairs. But the international community must not stand by while a repressive government opens fire on its people for peacefully protesting—and considers legislation that forces a mother, teacher or doctor to report her daughter, student or patient to the police simply for being who he or she is.

We must remain vigilant when the next session of Uganda’s parliament opens on May 18th, as it is likely, if not probable, that the bill will be re-introduced.

When I woke up on Friday to the amazing news that the bill had been defeated, at least for now, I started thinking about what made it possible and what lessons we might extrapolate for the human rights work that my organization, American Jewish World Service, supports around the world.

First, activists in Uganda built a remarkable coalition of organizations working in different sectors—human rights, HIV/AIDS, women’s rights, refugee rights, labor rights, LGBTI rights, and the list goes on. The notion that LGBTI Ugandans deserve the same rights as all Ugandans was not an uncontested idea in Ugandan civil society in October 2009 when the bill was first introduced. Building a coalition was no easy feat. But 28 organizations came together on the premise that LGBTI rights are not special, different or extra: they are human rights.

The victory in Uganda would not have been possible if LGBTI activists had been the only voices opposing the bill. Speaking from multiple perspectives, the Civil Society Coalition on Human Rights and Constitutional Law made the argument that the bill was unconstitutional, violated best practices in public health, and undermined civil liberties. The win underlines the importance of building social movements that transcend narrow identity-based rights claims and can gain new allies as a result. Activists in Uganda have shown us what that can look like.

In addition to local organizing, there’s no doubt that international activism played a critical role in killing the bill. In just the past few week, e-petitions from organizations like AllOut gathered millions of signatures, and domestic pressure in the U.S. and Europe encouraged dozens of legislators and government representatives to speak out against the legislation.

What’s been encouraging to me in the last week—in contrast to past moments during the nearly two-year fight to kill the bill—is the degree to which international actors took their lead from Ugandan activists. The Civil Society Coalition offered strategic guidance to advocacy organizations in the West, providing context by sharing its broader critique of the human rights crisis in Uganda, and helping us avoid playing into the government’s use of the bill as a distraction from its violence and repression.

AJWS believes that grassroots communities are best placed to envision, articulate and carry forward their own visions and strategies for social change. In the struggle against the Anti-Homosexuality Bill, it has been encouraging to see more and more international advocates respect the expertise and leadership of local activists in their own struggles.

There’s no question that the fight for human rights of LGBTI people in Uganda is far from over, and the country’s overall human rights situation is worsening with no end in sight. But victories are few and far between. This one is certainly worth savoring.

Sarah Gunther is the associate director of grants for Africa at American Jewish World Service, where she oversees a human rights grantmaking program with a focus on LGBTI communities in Uganda.

Creeping Decay of Chernobyl Captured in New Photo Exhibit (NEWS BRIEF)

One of the stunning images from Volatile Particles. CREDIT: M Bociurkiw/HUMNEWS(HN, May 15, 2011) - As the world watches another nuclear disaster unfold in Japan, a pair of Canadian photographers have launched an exhibit of images that explore another disaster's aftermath - creeping decay contrasted with regeneration and transformation.

Mathew Merrett and Olena Sullivan have created "Volatile Particles: 25 Years after Chernobyl", a photographic journey through Chernobyl's exclusion zone.

Volatile particles refer to the contaminants that were released into the air from the Chernobyl reactor meltdown, half of these landing outside the immediate area and affecting regions as far as the United Kingdom.

The exhibit was unveiled yesterday in Toronto at the Bezpala Brown Gallery(BBG). It is part of the CONTACT Photography 2011 Festival.

In an interview with HUMNEWS (click here), Sullivan said the exhibit is particularly timely given the ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan. Now that the so-called exclusion zone around Chernobyl is being open by Ukrainian officials to tourism, she voiced concerns that articles left behind by first responders and evacuated residents may be taken by visitors as souvenirs.

"Tourists don't have as much as a personal take on going to see this location as someone like Mathew and myself may have," Sullivan told HUMNEWS.

The images on display certainly distinguish themselves from most others released to the public: the photography and the superimposing of the day-to-day images of pre-disaster life on current day images that succeed in distinguishing this work from others who have explored the exclusion zone.

In a twist that endows the exhibit with an added element, QR codes link to videos of the disaster or to recipes still used by some of the survivors.

- HUMNEWS staff

Pig in a Python (NEWS BRIEF/BLOG)

- By John Terrett  (May 13, 2011)

The sign said it all. Welcome to Memphis! 

We were in Frayser, just outside the city, filming homes that had been inundated by flood water up to their roofs.

There was no one around - hadn’t been for days apparently - ever since the mighty Mississippi began hitting record levels.

The man in charge of coping with the disaster, Bob Nations of the Shelby County Office of Emergency Preparedness, told us the problem is not so much the Mississippi but its many tributaries:

"These tributaries for about a week now have not been able to dump their water into the Mississippi River and that's what you see backing up here in Shelby County."

Patrick Casey has worked in a nearby liquor store for more than 20 years. He and his colleagues spent the day moving stock to higher shelves.

"This is an incredible flood but I think we'll be OK, it's just a matter of time before it goes down. We'll get in there to clean up and take care of the neighbourhood."

Sergeants Derek and James, two Shelby County Sheriff Deputies, took us out in their amphibious vehicle to see the high water first hand.

It was eerily quiet floating so close to the roofs of people's homes. High water from the Loosahatchie River, one of the tributaries of the Mississippi north of Memphis, had wrecked a mobile home park we floated over.

The waters rose slowly and everyone got out alive but the people here had lost virtually everything.

Fears of looting

Sergeant Mills was there to stop them losing anymore than they already have.

"We're out here patrolling property to stop people looting and also we have sightseers. We don’t want them falling in the water and drowning. It's hard to get emergency vehicles in here, we're just out patrolling 'til the water goes down."

Around 450 people have been living in 10 shelters like the one we visited at the Hope Presbyterian Church on the edge of Memphis.

A displaced flood victim, Minerva Zuniga, told us:

"My husband took me and my kid out of the house and said we were not coming back here because of the flood and as soon as we were safe he tried to go back to get our stuff but he wasn't allowed in ... so we've lost most of our property."

Families get three square meals a day at the shelters, counselling and access to free supplies like clothes, baby toys and the internet.

Scott Milhollen from the Hope Church explained:

"Many of the families, the working spouse, often times the husband, is working during the day - we see them checkout at six or seven o'clock in the morning and we see them again at night for dinner all the time."

And the shelter's staff is gearing up for the long haul. The Mississippi and its many tributaries are not expected to return to levels normally seen at this time of the year for many days.

Pastor Rufus Smith said:

"This is projected to be a marathon, not a sprint because the water was so slow to rise in the flood. The prediction is that it's going to take longer, or as long to recede, so we're in this for up to two months ... if that's what it takes."

Wall of water

"Here comes the pig in a python", as the governor of the state of Mississippi put it recently. He was referring to the way the wall of water from excessive rain and snow melt is making it's way down North America's longest river.

On Railway Alley, just outside Vicksburg, Mississippi, we saw Ashley Johnson getting into her friend James' boat.

He'd offered to row her over to see the home she shares with her mom - now full of water.

Ashley said:

"I just want to see how high it is, I'm pretty sure it's pretty high from looking at the houses you can see from the road it's over most houses."

Cornelius Johnson - a distant relation of Ashley's - has lived here for sixty six years.  He was refusing to leave his home in case thieves targeted his property.

"My daughter and my wife are going to move but I'm going to stay here because of the looting ... man they went into two of those houses up there yesterday."

Cornelius also worried about numerous reports of snakes being driven from the woods by the advancing water ... "if I take off", he said, "you'll know I've seen one."

Meanwhile, when Ashley came back from viewing her house she showed me photos on her camera phone. The water had reached the windows but like so many people we've met in the flood zone she was optimistic.

"I know the Lord is going to be with us so everything is going to be fine."

Half a kilometre down the road Bernard's family had decided it's time for him to leave.

Well into his sixties he's recovering from heart surgery.  

His brother William Jefferson blamed the authorities for doing too little to build up the levees that hold the river water back since the last big flood in the 1970s.

"Everybody I guess just sits around until it happens and then everybody goes running all haywire, you know, trying to correct it and you cannot correct this after it's happening."

The rising Mississippi and its tributaries are affecting people who live in low-lying areas like Railway Alley north of Vicksburg - poor communities, where people live without insurance, and where by American standards they have nothing.

Now they're about to lose even that.

- originally published by Al-Jazeera on May 12, 2011 under Creative Commons Licensing 

What's "Normal" For Bahrain? (NEWS BRIEF/BLOG)

-by Teymoor Nabili (May 11, 2011)

(Credit: Teapartytribune) Monday's edition of the Gulf Daily News, ("The Voice of Bahrain")  led with the surpising declaration that everything is "Back to Normal", (or will be by next month).

"His Majesty King Hamad yesterday ordered an end to the State of National Safety from June 1. The State of National Safety is to be lifted by June 1 across the Kingdom of Bahrain."

Surprising because McClatchy news service has a sharply differing take on the state of the Kingdom.

Apparently un-noticed by the US, McClatchy reports, Bahrain's government has been systematically targeting any and all dissenting voices, most of them part of the Shia majority.

For example, 27 of the country's Shia mosques have been demolished without warning or explanation.

"The demolitions are carried out daily, Shia leaders say, with work crews often arriving in the dead of night, accompanied by police and military escorts. In many cases, the workers have hauled away the rubble, leaving no trace, before townspeople awake."

Al Jazeera sources also confirm that demolitions have been taking place.

Perhaps most chillingly, the news service also points to an example of what it calls "hate speech of the sort that preceded the 1994 Rwandan genocide", highlighting as evidence this letter printed by the Gulf Daily News.

The author, identified only as "Sana PS", labels the Shia February 14th movement as "termites", and recommends their extermination.

- originally published by Al-Jazeera on May 9, 2011 under Creative Commons Licensing 

Sudan: Abyei at a Dangerous Tipping Point (ANALYSIS)

Abyei, May 2011 - photo courtesy ICG - by The International Crisis Group (Nairobi/Brussels)

(May 10, 2011) -- Abyei is on the brink of dangerous new conflict that risks escalation of violent confrontation between security forces and other armed proxies from North and South Sudan on the eve of Southern independence.

Fighting in recent days follows months of recurring incidents in the hotly contested border territory, underscoring dangerous tensions both on the ground and between leaders of the National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) in Khartoum and Juba, respectively.

North and South have deployed forces in and around Abyei in breach of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and subsequent security arrangements, as both seek to control the territory come Southern independence on 9 July.

While previous clashes have involved civilians, informal militias, and/or police, last week’s involved members of security forces on both sides. Further escalation and additional tit-for-tat deployments risk pushing Abyei beyond the tipping point, endangering lives and the fragile peace in Sudan.

Fighting broke out at a security checkpoint near Todach in the Abyei area on 1 May, after Sudan Armed Forces elements of the Joint Integrated Units (JIU, a largely failed CPA mechanism comprising troops drawn from the Northern and Southern armies) allegedly delivering an authorised weapons shipment were stopped by Southern police forces; fighting erupted leaving some 14 dead. In addition to the immediate threat posed to civilians in and around Abyei, at risk are recent gains of the CPA and the peaceful secession of the South.

Both North and South have unilaterally asserted claims over Abyei in recent weeks, either in public rhetoric or in draft constitutions; Khartoum has even threatened to withhold recognition of Southern independence, underscoring the stakes and the importance of a mutually agreed solution. Further deterioration also threatens ongoing negotiations toward a constructive post-2011 relationship and risks escalation of proxy conflicts in other parts of both North and South Sudan.

The dispute over Abyei -- a territory geographically, ethnically and politically caught between North and South -- is one of the most intractable in Sudan. The area is settled primarily by Ngok Dinka communities and has been used for hundreds of years by Misseriya pastoralists who migrate to and beyond the territory to graze huge cattle herds during the dry season. Clashes early in the year and unresolved tensions have again prevented the Misseriya migration south, and apparently large numbers of cattle may die for lack of grass and water.

The CPA granted Abyei its own referendum (a choice to join the new South or remain a special administrative territory within the North), but this did not take place in part because of heated disputes over who was eligible to vote. Ngok Dinka constituents are overwhelmingly in favour of joining the South, while Misseriya communities fear annexation could prevent migration and thus threaten their way of life.

But the Abyei dispute has also assumed broader political dimensions, and been used as a bargaining chip between North and South. Despite common perceptions, the dispute is not primarily about oil, as the fields currently in Abyei only constitute a very small percentage of Sudan’s total production.

The African Union and the U.S. have made numerous attempts to broker a solution, but none have borne fruit. The parties -- through President Omar al-Bashir in the North and President Salva Kiir in the South -- have agreed that the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), which is tasked to facilitate negotiations on outstanding post-referendum and CPA issues, will table a new proposal toward a political solution in late May.

In the meantime, forward progress on other post-referendum issues (oil, currency, debt, and citizenship) could alter the North-South equation and ideally present a better opportunity for a mutually agreeable solution on Abyei.

Meanwhile, tensions between the NCP and SPLM have spiked in neighbouring Southern Kordofan state where elections have just been held. The results have not yet been announced, but will impact North-South relations as well as the potential re-establishment of a Misseriya-dominated Western Kordofan state (in their traditional homeland), and thus further alter the political calculus in Abyei.

Ngok Dinka and Misseriya leaders, and their allies in Juba and Khartoum respectively, are engaged in aggressive posturing in an attempt to influence the political negotiations over the future status of Abyei. Both sides have legitimate concerns and grievances, but their tactics carry enormous risks for the people of Abyei and for peaceful relations between North and South more broadly.

Some believe only international intervention will solve the crisis, but perpetuating a destabilised situation to that end is both highly dangerous and uncertain to deliver results. The risks of miscalculation and crisis escalation are extremely high. No international intervention can substitute for a political agreement between the parties  that must also have buy-in on the ground.

Security has grown ever more precarious for the people of the region. Agreements negotiated under UN auspices  -- 13 and 17 January 2011 and 4 March 2011 -- to stem increasing violence resolved that security would be provided only by newly deployed Joint Integrated Units and Joint Integrated Police Units (created under the May 2008 Abyei roadmap).

However, poor performance, prior involvement of JIU troops in large-scale clashes in 2008 and some seemingly unauthorised relocation have fuelled mistrust. Furthermore, the number of new JIU battalions currently deployed is not enough to secure the entire area; some units, fearing attacks, have reportedly even left the area.

In addition to mobilising and arming civilians, reports indicate that both the SPLA and SAF have deployed additional battalions and heavy weapons to, or near, the area. Further mobilisation or additional deployments inside Abyei would increase the chances for conflict exponentially. The security situation is made all the more precarious by the presence of heavily armed Southern police units, Popular Defence Forces, Misseriya militias and other independent, often criminal, militias. Many of these forces are only loosely controlled, if at all.

The danger of new conflict is real. Failure to halt the downward trend toward violence in Abyei could unravel the tenuous peace that has been strong enough to get through the Southern Sudan referendum, but it could also intensify proxy war in other parts of Sudan, which will continue to feed the adversarial North-South relationship that both sides have so well accommodated over the course of the CPA period. 

- The International Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.  Recommendations by ICG on the above topic can be found here. Originally published by ICG on May 8, 2011.