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Pulling the Revolutionary Trigger - Via Facebook (PERSPECTIVE)
Tuesday, February 22, 2011 at 5:31AM 
by Alina Vrejoiu
“Whatever the future may have in store for us, one thing is certain — this new revolution in human thought will never go backward.” --- Fredrick Douglas
(HN, February 21, 2011) -- As Libyan cities continue to fall into the hands of anti-Gaddafi supporters, many people are once again speculating on the root cause of the upheavals in the Middle East and Northern Africa.
Ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was so terrified of social media he ordered the Internet shut for several days. CREDIT: Al-Ahram
As an educator, and having lived through the revolution in Eastern Europe, I can tell you that if you peel away all the layers one thing becomes clear: the lack of an educational foundation is at the top of the list for revolutionary triggers.
It’s no accident that in this information age, social networking is leading the North African and Middle Eastern leap to modernity. This - combined with a high population of youth and a poor economy - makes a very potent recipe for revolution.
Who would have imagined that social networking sites - such as Twitter, Facebook and others like them - once thought to be playful diversions, are now helping to thread together the fabrics of the revolution? And who would have thought that the technology embraced by so many millions could pose a threat to strongmen like Muammar al-Gadaffi, one of the nastiest in the region, Hosni Mubarak and long-standing regimes in Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria and elsewhere?
Protesters in Benghazi demonstrate against Colonel Gaddafi Photo: FLICKRYoung men and women of these long-closed societies - such as Google marketing executive Wael Ghonim in Egypt - have formed online communities of like-minded individuals who have been disenfranchised by their governments of economic dignity and freedom for so many decades.
Something had to give and the timing is no accident: food prices are sky-rocketing, joblessness is at an all-time high and promises of reform from long-serving strongmen in the region have produced nothing more than hollow results.
In this information age everyone is connected but no one is in charge - this is what is leading to a breakdown in the dictatorships.
The rotted out governments of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and other countries in Northern Africa and the Middle East are a clear example of how being out of touch with technology and the huge generational gap have become huge liabilities.
These are the two main propellant forces that will fuel more and more protests in countries all over region.
In the region, about 60% of people are under the age of thirty and they all want to be free and have economic stability like all human beings do.
As a presidential contender, Barack Obama knew how to reach America’s youth like no other politician running for office. His hypnotic “Yes We Can” campaign slogan resonated not only with the youth in this country, but all over the world. He had the savvy to connect with and engage college students for the first time in the United States through the Internet.
Overthrowing a regime and making a change will require massive investment in infrastructure and social programs in order for change to be successful and sustainable.
According to the United Nations the countries in this region have not only avoided badly-needed investment in their people but they have also kept them in the dark - through tactics ranging from limiting access to Internet sites to keeping tight reigns on state-owned media outlets.
Expect this astonishing wave of change to wash across virgin territory. Iran’s regime is vulnerable to the same break down as the countries in Northern Africa are faced with. The Mullahs and the Islamic element are minor in comparison to the population of youth they must face. The regime will put up a lot of resistance but its chances of surviving are slim. I am making the bold prediction that the Iranian regime will collapse within a year’s time, at the latest, and will change the geopolitics in the Middle East.
People all across the Middle East and North Africa are willing to sacrifice their lives for a common cause. The reality is promising and - these days - the trigger seems just a click away.
---Alina Vrejoiu is a faculty member of Kingsborough Community College in Brooklyn, New York and has taught international students for the last four years.
Reader Comments (6)
Well balanced analysis of the situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Hope your prediction regarding Mullahs regime will come true.
The world is reaping the benefits of the information and communication technology revolution. Social media, viral marketing, twitter and the likes will not stop at the control of regimes or elite power groups who think they can still exert control through access to knowledge and resources the old-fashioned way.
The dictators in the old world (MENA region) are just a simple example of how mankind has little control on events in the new world order. The future belongs to those how will share wealth and knowledge with fellow humans in a strive to normalize the ecosystem disturbance caused by man's greed and desire to manipulate resources.
What lies beneath the global changes that spiraled in the MENA region is far beyond the commercial control of the select few. The legend of global warming, scarce resources and trade barriers will not be driven anymore by nations or a pact that can reign the minds of the youth through the myth of democracy... We live in times of real change freedom is from within and it is here to stay freedom of thought. Watch the world come together, the only divider will be good versus evil not politics, racism or even faith doctrines.
Change is here to stay in this information age. However, there is also a danger that after these countries oust their dictators a sham democracy can form in back rooms by generals like in Pakistan. Our alleys are changing and we have to regain their confidence. We have to remember that the U.S. supported the countries in the MENA region that are crumbling unlike we did with the Soviet Union. Arabs see Washington as being supporters of these corrupt systems and the transition should be made to the whole system and not the old dictators. The Obama administration should step in at some point to help Egypt. He needs to mend the image of us brokering a deal with military dictatorships.
Great piece Alina. It will be interesting indeed to see the decade unfold as new ways are discovered to compliment the current availability of media throughout these dictatorships. Their strength has always been based on media control, but where there's a will there's a way. I understand that Saudi Arabia has its fair share of citizens below the poverty line and when people suffer hardship or serious inequality they find a way to be heard. I guess we should all watch this space...
Thank you for your comment Stephen!
Media control has always been a strong way that dictatorships have kept their citizens subdued. Today, we are amazed that the Internet is helping to fuel these revolutions, but in the past newspapers, books and television were just as radical.
I came across an interesting point of view saying that there never was an “Egyptian revolution,” but rather a behind-the-scenes military putsch by a junta of CIA puppet generals who evidently could not succeed in their goal of ousting Hosni Mubarak without the help of a heavy-duty ultimatum from Washington in the night between Thursday, February 10 and Friday, February 11, 2011.
Claiming that there is growing evidence that the threat in question involved the seizure or blocking of the Suez Canal, the Egyptian waterway which carries over 8% of all seaborne world trade, which the imperialists tried to grab back in 1956, and from which they would today like to exclude China, Iran, and Russia.
As for Mubarak, there are strong indications that he was toppled by Washington and London because he opposed the current US-UK plan to organize a block of Sunni Arab states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Gulf states — under a US nuclear umbrella and shoulder to shoulder with Israel — for purposes of confrontation and war with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and their Shiite and radical allies.